SV 2015 Forecast: Why the Bubble Isn't Bursting Yet
1. By The Numbers
Colliers exec managing director Jeff Fredericks, who spoke at the company's annual Silicon Valley forecast at San Jose's California Theatre, said demand remains fervent in the market, with 26 projects under construction and only nine without signed deals. That’s 4.7M SF of done deals in the under construction pipeline that will be absorbed in 2015, including 3.9M SF of office space. Total gross absorption in Silicon Valley was up nearly 13% in 2014, to 24.5M SF.
2. Are We In Bubble Trouble?
Despite fears of bubble trouble, a roundtable tackled the topic, featuring Beacon Economics founding partner Christopher Thornberg; Silicon Valley Data Capital founder Jim McLean; Silicon Valley Bank Capital managing director Kevin Scott; and moderator, Sobrato Organization CEO John M. Sobrato. Chris doesn't believe this part of the cycle is a bubble and thinks the economy will continue to grow over the next couple of years. But he says the Bay Area is shockingly unwilling to increase housing density, which is causing some tech companies to look to LA, where there are more places to live for new hires.
3. Changing Tech Scene
It's been 15 years since the dot-com boom and tech companies are again making the rules. But Jim says firms today have more profitable models than 2000-era firms. Today's tech companies have real customers and have been around for five to seven years versus five to seven months. There was $100B invested into the venture ecosystem in 2000, dumped into 8,000 companies. Last year there was $30B invested in only 4,000 deals.