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Though commercial real estate transactions decreased significantly in Q1, industry experts say the outlook remains healthy for capital markets.
Deal volume fell 18.5% to $108B compared to the year-ago quarter, Ten-X says in its CRE capital markets report. “A first-quarter slowdown in transactional volume was predictable, as investors traditionally push to get deals on the books by the end of the fourth quarter,” Ten-X Research chief economist Peter Muoio says.
Check out how the five real estate sectors—office, industrial, hotel, multifamily and retail— fared in Q1.
Hotel
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As the 10-year Treasury’s rates dropped to 1.89% in Q1, risk premiums are on the rise, particularly in hotel investment, which posted a 6.6% increase—amounting to the highest risk of any sector. Ten-X predicts Treasury rates will remain flat in the future amidst global market volatility, the oil slump and job growth concerns.
Industrial
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Industrial’s risk premiums are also on the rise as it increased by 120 bps in Q1 to 5.6%. And though the Treasury rate fell, Q1 cap rates showed modest declines across all segments, particularly in industrial, which rose to 7.9%, an increase of 70 bps.
Office
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Office cap rates showed modest declines, dropping to 6.58% from their 7.2% 10-year average. The segment is noting a boost in investments as landlords move to urban areas to grab the tech-savvy Millennial.
Retail
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This segment is leading the way in terms of pricing growth, posting yearly gains of 9.5%. It has also outpaced its 10-year average for overall transactional volume by 33.2%, though the segment must still account for retail industry struggles as large chains face competition from e-commerce gains.
Multifamily
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Multifamily was the only sector to beat its 10-year average in deal volume by 950 bps. It accounted for 36.4% of the quarter’s shared $108B in transactions, an indicator that investors remain optimistic about the sector despite rising apartment vacancies.
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