CMBS delinquencies rose 4 bps to 5.17% in December, dragged down primarily by the multifamily and retail sectors.
Despite the drop, December's rate is an improvement over 2014's 5.75%. Altogether, $1.6B of CMBS loans went belly up last month, according to a Trepp report.
The multifamily sector has been troubled by the lengthy negotiations over loans backing the Peter Cooper Village/Stuyvesant Town development. “The multifamily sector is still waiting on pins and needles for the resolution of the $3 billion of debt associated with” the project, Trepp analyst Sean Barrie tells Bisnow.
The case has been in court to determine how proceeds from the sale will be distributed. Once the court makes its decision “the multifamily delinquency rate will improve immensely,” Sean says.
Overall, the biggest casualty came from a $190M office-building loan in Bridgewater, NJ, followed by a $133M loan backing the Triangle Town Center retail development in Raleigh, NC.
The numbers across asset classes came in a bit more mixed, however. Multifamily delinquency rate jumped 13 bps to 8.28% with retail seeing a 12-point uptick to 5.76%.
Unlike multifamily—which should fall into place quickly—retail, Sean says, is in the midst of a two-year-long malaise that could take a bit longer to resolve. “A lot of [retail] loans have lingered in special servicing, which has caused this slowdown.”
Office property rates went up six points to 5.79% while lodging rates rose seven points to 2.82%. Meanwhile, industrial CMBS fell 26 bps to 5.73%. All in all Sean says the latest numbers are roughly in line with previous Decembers.
He expects 2016 to be a good year for CMBS overall as new loan originations will help offset delinquencies across the board, he says. “Also, a resolution for the Stuy Town will not only improve the multifamily reading, but the national reading as well.”
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