By 2030, the United States could see a shortage of up to 120,000 physicians.
If the trend continues, patient care would be severely impacted. People would have to wait longer at hospitals. Treatment might be subpar from overworked physicians. Physician burnout, depression and suicide, already a growing problem, may increase and get worse.
For commercial real estate, the shortage of doctors could mean fewer medical office building developments and fewer doctors setting up private practices and leasing up office space.
"I believe this is a true crisis," Avanti Hospitals CEO Joel Bergenfeld said of the possible physician shortage at Bisnow's National Healthcare West conference last week at the JW Marriott in downtown Los Angeles.
At the daycost long conference, panelists discussed the growth and popularity of outpatient medical office buildings, explored the uniqueness of Cedars-Sinai's 820K SF Advanced Health Sciences Pavilion and tackled the benefits of adding high-speed internet to hospitals.
Strategic Venue Partners President and Chief Financial Officer Chad Aaron said he was surprised at the number of hospital operators that are still on a 3G network. The current tech system some hospitals have is completely inefficient, Aaron said.
"How do doctors get more productive?" Aaron said. "The way doctors get more productive is if they are able to see more patients in a day. Each doctor spends on average 17 minutes with a patient. We did a study with our providers that doctors lose 27 minutes just trying to get cell coverage. If you can have them see one [more] patient a day across your platform ... this will generate revenue."
However, the most spirited discussion came from panelists discussing a possible looming doctor shortage.
An Association of American Medical Colleges report released in April 2018 found there could be a shortage of up to 49,300 primary care physicians by 2030. The AAMC estimates the shortage of nonprimary care physicians could be as much as 72,700 physicians by the end of the next decade.
“With the additional demand from a population that will not only continue to grow but also age considerably over the next 12 years, we must start training more doctors now to meet the needs of our patients in the future,” AAMC President and CEO Dr. Darrell G. Kirch said in a news release.
The demand for physicians comes from a growing aging population, AAMC officials said.
AAMC found that the population in the U.S. is estimated to grow by nearly 11%, and baby boomers over the age of 65 will increase by 50% by 2030.
Additionally, physicians are also aging. By 2030, one-third of all active doctors will be older than 65.
"When these physicians decide to retire could have the greatest impact on supply," the AAMC release said.
Physician burnout is real, said Dr. Michael Nduati, an associate clinical professor of health sciences at the University of California, Riverside School of Medicine.
"If you ask any doctor if they had a chance to do this [be a doctor] again, at least a third of them would say no," Nduati said.
In California, the stress on physicians will only grow, said Bruce Pollack, senior vice president of strategy and health system integration at Martin Luther King Jr. Community Hospital. Pollack estimates his hospital in South Los Angeles has a shortage of 1,200 doctors.
"There are not enough doctors to take care of the demand that's going to be increasing as California expands coverage to the number of [undocumented immigrants]," Pollack said. "There's got to be more money in the system."
Meridian CEO John Pollock said the physician shortage needs to be addressed. He believes real estate developers will play a significant role in helping to find solutions.
Pollock told Bisnow that hospital management needs to better streamline physicians' tasks and expand the services of nurse practitioners and physician assistants. He also said telemedicine, machine learning and other technological advances will help drive efficiencies and reduce the physician shortage crisis.
"If the delivery of healthcare doesn’t change, there will be a significant shortage of physicians," Pollock wrote in an email. "This 'burning platform' will be a catalyst for much-needed change that will force payors and providers to deliver more efficient care."
Pollock said to be sustainable, there needs to be a model of care that can be done more efficiently and more cost-effectively.
"Some of that efficiency and cost saving will come from the ideas noted above, but a lot will have to come from the physical spaces where healthcare is delivered," Pollock said. "We believe that the key to more efficient care will be the ability to deliver it in an ambulatory outpatient setting and within space that newly designed for the new delivery models."
Click below for a slideshow of Bisnow's National Healthcare West event:
