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Only £800M of new assets were put up for sale in the UK in March, less than half the listings of a year ago, according to new data from Cushman & Wakefield, as liquidity in the sector dries up in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.
The Cushman & Wakefield Commercial Real Estate Liquidity Tracker uses data to monitor investment activity from the point of marketing through to deal completion. The tracker is monitoring more than £17B of UK product. Covering single assets valued at more than £5M, but not portfolios, it is estimated to capture more than 50% of the market.
The tracker showed that following the General Election result at the end of last year and the UK’s confirmed exit from the EU in January, there was a resurgence in the number of assets available. However, the growing global impact of the coronavirus has resulted in a drastic downturn in the number of deals being completed as well as new assets coming to the market. The £800M offered for sale in March compares to £1.9B in March 2019.
About £11.4B of transactions completed in Q1, 14% down on the same period in 2019.
The analysis showed the number of assets being withdrawn altogether remains relatively low to date. This is starting to increase, particularly for smaller lot sizes.
From a pricing perspective, assets that sold in the first quarter of 2020 traded at an average 2% discount to quoting, versus 2.4% in Q4 2019. Industrial and alternative assets continue to trade at a premium with offices largely meeting their quoting price or being sold for more in places such as central London. Retail assets faced steep discounting.
“The positive momentum which emanated in December and January driven by increased political stability domestically has quickly and sharply dissipated due to the global nature of the current crisis,” said Nigel Almond, Cushman & Wakefield head of Data Analytics, EMEA Research & Insight.
“Initial positive sentiment is being replaced by more realism as the impact of the pandemic unfolds, with real estate markets changing on an almost daily basis. Moving forward we expect a limited amount of new product to come to the market with continued downward pressure on pricing. A lack of debt coupled with an inability to inspect buildings will also lead to sales progressing more slowly or being placed on hold.”
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