As real estate groups line up to fight the rent control initiative on the Massachusetts ballot this fall, a new economic report shows what may be at stake.

An economic analysis conducted by the Tufts University Center for State Policy Analysis found that if the 2026 rent control ballot were to pass, it could eliminate $300B in state property values within a decade, creating a ripple effect of budgetary shortfalls for municipalities.

The report was commissioned by the Greater Boston Real Estate Board, which opposes the measure.

According to the report, municipalities could see a short-term loss of 7.5% in residential property taxes and a permanent decline of up to 18%.

The study's researchers analyzed the economic impact of two past rent control measures, one in St. Paul, Minnesota, and another Cambridge, Massachusetts. The latter ended in 1995 when Massachusetts voters banned rent control in a ballot measure.

The researchers then projected those previous measures' effects on the Massachusetts real estate market.

The rent control ballot measure would allow municipalities to limit rent increases across all 351 municipalities to no more than 5% per year. There would be an exemption to the cap for owner-occupied buildings with four or fewer units as well as new construction for 10 years.

In Boston, values would shrink 9% within three years, creating a budget shortfall of $160M, according to the study. Chelsea, Everett and Revere could expect to see a 15% to 27% loss in property value over 10 years.

Mayors from Holyoke, Revere and Chelsea have come out in support of the findings.

The anti-rent control coalition Housing for Massachusetts said the findings offer a stark warning about the measure.

"The data is clear: this ballot question will hurt homeowners, small property owners, renters, and the communities they live in," Housing for Massachusetts Chair Conor Yunits said in a statement to Bisnow.

Gov. Maura Healey has come out against the ballot, saying the proposal has already halted some housing development across the state.

Boston Mayor Michelle Wu in February said she supports the rent control measure, but she also said that now would be a good time for state legislators to propose an alternative rent control measure if they don't like this one.

Keep Massachusetts Home, the group behind the rent control campaign, secured more than enough signatures to place the initiative on the ballot in the fall. The coalition is led by housing advocacy group Homes for All Massachusetts.

Homes for All Massachusetts Executive Director Carolyn Chou didn't directly address the study but suggested in a written statement to Bisnow that the real economic threat is to do nothing to control rents.

"Right now in Massachusetts, rents can legally double overnight — displacing workers and seniors from their communities," Chou said. "We need basic protections against excessive rent hikes."

Earlier this week, Housing for Massachusetts filed a full complaint to the state Supreme Judicial Court, arguing that the ballot measure isn't constitutionally sound and shouldn't go in front of voters in November.

Early polling has indicated that 56% of likely voters strongly or somewhat support limiting rent increases, according to a University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll.