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New York
Manhattan Skyline
Move over, DC. New York will emerge as the top office dog in the nation this year, according to Marcus & Millichap—a five-place jump over last year’s rankings and supported by healthy job growth andlimited construction. It’s not about whether space demand will bounce back but how quickly rents will revert to and eventuallysurpass the peak, the firm says. Sublease space only accounts for10% of the market, and there’s only a small shadow market, which means property owners can push rents even more aggressively this year. Its forecast: employers will add 84,000 jobs this year citywide; developers will complete 1.2M SF of construction; job growth will lead to 97M SF of net positive absorption and drop vacancy to 9.9%; asking rents will rise 5% and effective asking rents, 7%; and concerns over the effects of long-term deficits on interest rates will increasinglydrive foreign capital into hard assets, including large office properties in this supply constrained market.