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Is Commercial Real Estate Cooling Off? UCLA Economist Thinks So


Commercial real estate values have more than doubled since their crisis lows in 2009, buoyed lately by cheap money and low levels of new construction (except in multifamily)—but a slowdown is coming.

That’s according to UCLA senior economist David Shulman, who says prices are starting to level off as investors begin to worry about the possibility of another interest rate hike. At the same time, Shulman says demand for commercial real estate will fall as job growth naturally tapers off as the US economy approaches full employment, Commercial Property Executive reports.

Gloomy on nearly all fronts, Shulman says the luxury apartment market is oversupplied, malls are suffering as anchors continue to fail and the office sector managed only a sluggish recovery. But, Shulman sees a bright spot in industrial real estate, which is continuing to benefit from e-commerce dominance. [CPE]