Report: Wall St. Analysts Predict Weak '15
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It's the time of the season for year-end "Best of..." lists and predictions for the coming year. And one normally optimistic (for reasons vested and otherwise) group of fortunetellers—Wall Street strategists—is bucking the usually rosy assessments for some disheartening economic projections. A Bloomberg survey found that respondents predict the S&P in 2015 to grow by 5%, or just half of the 2014 gain through last month. Goldman Sachs analyst David Kostin foresees a paltry 1.6% 2015 gain for the pivotal index.
The results follow another dire assessment citing a 65% chance of a global recession and US contraction next year. The Jerome Levy Forecasting Center bore that bad news. And while predictions often lead nowhere, it's worth noting that this particular organization accurately called the Great Depression and Great Recession shortly before they hit. Explanations for the pessimism include low inflation that may cross over to deflation, exports representing a whopping 13% of US GDP, and spiraling budget deficits across the globe.