Moody's: U.S. Office Vacancy Hits Another Record High
Office vacancy in the U.S. hit a record high last quarter for the sixth time in a row, according to a Moody’s Analytics report released Wednesday.
All commercial real estate sectors are experiencing weakness, the second-quarter report says, as “macroeconomic uncertainty dampened household and business confidence.” But the weakness in the office sector was particularly acute.
Moody’s reported nationwide office vacancy at 20.6% last quarter, up from 17% five years ago, at the start of the pandemic. Last quarter's new high was a 20-basis-point jump from the first quarter and a 50 bps increase year-over-year.
The Moody's report says mandates for employees to return to the office “have done little to stem the bleeding.”
And it predicts future lease terminations by the federal government “will slowly lead to additional available space in the next year or two.” The D.C. office market is already feeling that pain, with the city losing 850K SF of federal occupancy through the first half of this year, according to CBRE.
“Positively, our baseline forecast anticipates the economy will avoid a recession, though downside risks remain high for the office sector as previous periods of economic instability have weakened demand,” the report says.
Effective office rents saw modest growth in Q2, rising to $28.45 per SF on average, 8 cents higher than the previous quarter.
The five metro areas with the sharpest declines in vacancy and the highest rent growth over the past year were Birmingham, Alabama, Palm Beach and Miami, Florida, Wichita, Kansas, and Columbia, South Carolina, according to the report.
On the other end of the spectrum were Nashville, Denver, Seattle, Portland, Oregon, and San Jose, California, which all had negative rent growth and multiple percentage points of increased vacancy.
As for other asset classes' performance during Q2, retail and industrial vacancy rates ticked up from the previous quarter, according to Moody's. Retail rose 10 basis points to 10.5%, and industrial rose 20 basis points to 7.5%.
Multifamily vacancy remained at 6.5%, according to Moody's. Apartment asking rents increased 12 cents to an average of $1,832 per month, while retail rents increased 2 cents to $19.27 per SF, and industrial stayed flat at $7.63 per SF.
