'Inching Towards Cooling': Economists React To The September Jobs Report On Twitter
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 263,000 jobs in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. The unemployment rate returned to 3.5%, once again matching the half-century low last seen in July.
Employment growth for the month was led by the leisure and hospitality sector, which added 83,000 jobs in September, including 60,000 jobs at food services and drinking establishments.
Manufacturing and construction jobs also continued to trend up, with the manufacturing sector adding 22,000 jobs and construction adding 19,000.
Monthly job growth has now averaged 420,000 jobs in 2022 compared with 562,000 per month in 2021.
Here's how economists and others reacted to the September jobs report on Twitter.
The job market is slowing modestly, but is still running at a healthy clip:
— Daniel Zhao (@DanielBZhao) October 7, 2022
Sep's #JobsReport shows 263,000 job gains, tying the slowest rate of jobs growth since April 2021.
The unemployment rate fell back to 3.5 percent after a surprise jump in Aug. #jobsreport 1/
If you wanted to write the September script for what a perfect soft landing looked like, you might have drawn up these latest set of jobs numbers with employment growth continuing, but slowing to more sustainable rates, and wage growth running at rates unlikely to spark inflation
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) October 7, 2022
The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job remains nearly 20% higher than pre-pandemic levels. Nearly 6 million people--wanting a job, but not actively searching in this tight labor market. Why? Childcare? Health? Not sure what to do? Mental health?
— Betsey Stevenson (@BetseyStevenson) October 7, 2022
Americans ARE going back to the office:
— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) October 7, 2022
"In September, 5.2% of employed persons teleworked because of the coronavirus pandemic, down from 6.5% in the prior month.
In May 2020, 35.4 percent of employed persons teleworked because of the coronavirus pandemic."
Leisure and Hospitality grew quickly in September, not an uncommon result these days, but interestingly Transportation and Warehousing, a pandemic-era winner, shrank last month. pic.twitter.com/1Ib23X0tIg
— Nick Bunker (@nick_bunker) October 7, 2022
The same service categories (leisure, hospitality, education, health) led employment upward last month. Those have been the areas most starved for workers since the #pandemic recovery began. pic.twitter.com/neFND5kKTr
— Carl R. Tannenbaum (@NT_CTannenbaum) October 7, 2022
The private sector has gained back all the jobs it lost in the covid recession, and more (105%). State and local governments have gained back less than 60%. I’m a broken record on this, but we have to push state & local govts to use their ARPA funds to raise pay & hire workers.7/
— Heidi Shierholz (@hshierholz) October 7, 2022
This year the Fed has crushed the stock market, tech, and real estate all in its mission to ease the burden on the renter class.
— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) October 7, 2022
Ugh, these household survey numbers are the opposite of what the Fed wants to see. Unemployment rate falling while labor force shrinks (by 57k) and not in labor force rises (by 229k).
— Neil Irwin (@Neil_Irwin) October 7, 2022
I know that markets are anxious to see labor market softening to get the Fed to back off but every month the labor market stays resilient buys more time for supply chain/inflation normalization.
— Conor Sen (@conorsen) October 7, 2022
For workers sake, let’s hope the Doctor [Jerome Powell] will give the first doses of medicine a chance to sink in before an over-dose of counter-stimulus puts hundreds of thousands out of work.
— Andrew Stettner (@pelhamprog) October 7, 2022
Here's what I'm watching: at 263,000, job growth is still well above 2018-2019 levels, but slowing returning to those healthy numbers.
— Mike Konczal (@rortybomb) October 7, 2022
The worry is with lags in tightening, that we could overshoot those levels, and we're just getting a sweet-spot snapshot now. pic.twitter.com/YyLp0zb1wV
Jefferies weighs in on jobs data: “We still expect another 75 bp rate hike in November.” pic.twitter.com/jnlIC5pCPM
— Michael S. Derby (@michaelsderby) October 7, 2022
Bottom line: Best to smooth over time. Trend is participation up (up a lot in Aug, gave back some in Sep). Unemployment roughly steady. Job growth slowing and is new participants. Wage growth might be slowing a little. Openings/unemployed down.
— Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) October 7, 2022
Economy inching towards cooling.
