'There Was Never A Recession': Economists React To The November Jobs Report On Twitter
Nonfarm payroll employment grew more than expected in November, adding 263,000 jobs, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.
The unemployment rate remains at 3.7%, and it has remained between 3.5% and 3.7% since the end of the first quarter.
Notable job gains were found in the leisure and hospitality sector, which added 88,000 jobs in November including 62,000 jobs at food services and drinking places.
Construction employment also grew in November, adding 20,000 jobs. The construction industry is now adding an average of 19,000 jobs per month in 2022, up from 16,000 jobs a month in 2021.
But the retail trade and transportation and warehousing sectors experienced a decline in employment numbers in November.
Employment in retail trade fell by 30,000 jobs in November and has fallen by 62,000 jobs since August. The transportation and warehousing sector suffered 15,000 job losses in November and has now lost 38,000 jobs since July.
Here's how economists and others reacted to the November jobs report on Twitter:
US added 263,000 net new jobs in November, more than the 200,000 gain consensus by economists surveyed by @WSJ
— Ted C. Jones (@DrTCJ) December 2, 2022
Unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%. Average hourly wages grew 0.6% in the month & up 5.1% in the prior year to $32.82 @MarketWatch @BLS_gov
Today's jobs report likely puts the Fed in a more hawkish (interest rate raising) mood. Employment growth appears to still be running at historically high rates, unemployment remains lower than some believe is sustainable, and there's some evidence that wage growth ticked up.
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) December 2, 2022
The jobs report is encouraging for workers getting jobs & the economy not slipping into recession: 263K jobs added and unemployment remains 3.7%.
— Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) December 2, 2022
But discouraging for the Fed's hopes that slowing wages will make its job easier. Average hourly earnings up at a 6.8% annual rate.
Resilient employment with acceleration in wages not what the Federal Reserve was looking for. The acceleration in wages in transportation and warehousing was largest on record. (Data only goes back to 2006.) Step up in retail wages as well, despite slower seasonal hiring.
— Diane Swonk (@DianeSwonk) December 2, 2022
When next month average weekly hours bounces back and wage growth is low some of the alarmism this morning is going to look silly.
— Conor Sen (@conorsen) December 2, 2022
BTW, remember all that recession talk?
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) December 2, 2022
It was nonsense. Bollocks. Cow dung.
There never was a recession. And the economy sure doesn't look like it's in one now.
Job growth at this rate is the economy singing: "This is a robust expansion."
How should this report affect your priors:
— Adam Ozimek (@ModeledBehavior) December 2, 2022
If you thought we were in or rapidly entering a recession, you should worry less and see a soft landing as more likely.
If you thought we were headed for a soft landing, you should worry more as wages raise odds the Fed goes too far.
In November, the economy added jobs about everywhere except retail/warehouse
— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) December 2, 2022
Restaurants +62,000
Healthcare +45,000
Gov't +42,000
Social assist +23,000
Construction +20,000
IT +19,000
Manufacturing +14,000
'Laundry services' +11,000
Biz +6,000
Warehouse -13,000
Retail -30,000
The pivot away from goods is really showing up in this report.
— Nick Bunker (@nick_bunker) December 2, 2022
Department stores down 21.8k, warehousing and storage down 12.5k, couriers down 12.4k
#jobsday general merchandise stores lost 32.2k jobs in November after losing 12.5k in October, looks like weak holiday hiring
— Dean Baker (@DeanBaker13) December 2, 2022
We added 43,000 state and local govt jobs in November, but there is still a big gap—they are down 471,000 since Feb ‘20, with over half of that, 244,000, in education. It’s crucial that state and local govts use their ARPA funds to raise pay and refill those jobs. 8/
— Heidi Shierholz (@hshierholz) December 2, 2022
#jobsday residential construction categories still add 3.9k jobs in November, in spite of sharp fall in starts
— Dean Baker (@DeanBaker13) December 2, 2022
Only res building jobs declined. Specialty trade contractor jobs increased for both res and nonres. This subsector comprises establishments whose primary activity is performing specific activities (pouring concrete, site preparation, plumbing, painting & electrical work). (11/n) pic.twitter.com/KSBheYr4hU
— Odeta Kushi (@odetakushi) December 2, 2022
Big takeaways from today's jobs report:
— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) December 2, 2022
1) Job market is still pretty hot. +263,000 jobs added
2) Wage growth is still pretty hot. +5.1% --> this will keep inflation up.
3) US doesn't have enough workers. Labor force isn't anywhere close to pre-covidhttps://t.co/aVc7pbKnGf pic.twitter.com/N4rk1ljpo7
Honestly, if I've got one word of advice for those trying to chart the future of the economy, it's: Humility.
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) December 2, 2022
It's hard to know where we are at, and how much room we've got left to grow. But just as unhappy outcomes are possible, so too are happier ones.
