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Stressing over China's falling economy may be a valid point, according to Citigroup's chief economist, Willem Buiter, who says there's a 55% chance that a moderate global recession will occur in the next few years. But unlike previous downturns, which were caused by slumps in the US economy, this one will be caused by China, Willem says, putting the giant economy at "high and rapidly rising risk of a cyclical hard landing." China's economy is growing at 4%, short of the 7% target, and a recession is likely to happen if it lowers to 2.5%. But not everyone agrees with Willem's forecast. Finance giants Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan Chase downplay the risk, while Societe Generale SA says cheap oil reduces the risk of recession to just 10%. While easing monetary and fiscal policies could help avoid a recession next year, the dollar could still surge if foreign investors continue to unload in America. Similarly, a rising interest rate may just be cut by the end of next year. [Bloomberg]
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