'2 Economies': Economists React To The March Jobs Report On Twitter
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 236,000 jobs in March, almost exactly in line with consensus estimates, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.
The unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%. It has remained at or below 3.7% since the end of the first quarter of 2022.
The leisure and hospitality industry saw the biggest increase in jobs, adding 72,000 in March, 50,000 of which were in food services and drinking places. The industry had averaged monthly gains of 95,000 jobs over the previous six months.
In retail, job losses in the retail trade sector were offset by 15,000 jobs added from department store hiring. Other major industries specifically relevant to commercial real estate, including construction and manufacturing, showed little change in total month-over-month hiring.
Here's how economists and others reacted to the March jobs report on Twitter.
March #jobsreport is slower but still steady:
— Daniel Zhao (@DanielBZhao) April 7, 2023
*+236,000 jobs, down from 326k in Feb, 472k in Jan
*Unemp down to 3.5%
*Wage growth down to 4.2% YoY, slowest since Jun '21
March came in like a lion w/ the banking turmoil, but is going out like a lamb w/ a solid jobs report.
1/
Payrolls come in at 236k, right as expected. Wage growth comes in weak. Thats a good report.
— Adam Ozimek (@ModeledBehavior) April 7, 2023
OK. So this is a no-surprise jobs report. Hiring still robust. LFP up a bit. Unemployment rate low. Avg weekly hours down a bit. Wages gains slowing a bit. What does this mean for Fed's May meeting? Fed funds market sees 55% probability of 0.25% hike; rest see no change.
— David Wessel (@davidmwessel) April 7, 2023
We're starting to see 2 economies for jobs: Still hiring in restaurants/health/gov but not in retail/real estate
— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) April 7, 2023
Hospitality: +72,000
Gov't +47,000
Biz: +39,000
Healthcare +34,000
Social aid +17,000
Retail -14,600
Warehousing -11,800
Construction -9,000
Real estate/leasing…
Despite the banking crisis, the March jobs report was good. Slower job growth, declining hours, and stable Urate suggest the job market is throttling back, consistent with moderating wage pressures and inflation, but it’s not falling apart, which would happen in a recession.
— Mark Zandi (@Markzandi) April 7, 2023
Also: Recession? What recession?
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) April 7, 2023
Over the past three months, jobs growth has averaged +345k per month.
If the economy continues at that rate, 2023 will be the fifth fastest rate of job growth ever, after 2021, 2022, 1946 and 1978.
Point is, this is remarkably rapid job growth.
For the Fed, this probably looks like good news at the margin. Wage gains are slowing, which they've been hoping for, though this measure is noisy and not their favorite.
— Jeanna Smialek (@jeannasmialek) April 7, 2023
These job gains are still strong, historically, but they're coming alongside higher participation.
Hard to see this report pushing the Fed one way or the other on a possible rate hike in early May. The CPI and PCE inflation data out between now and then, plus signs of credit tightening (or lack thereof) seem more likely to determine their next move.
— Neil Irwin (@Neil_Irwin) April 7, 2023
Construction employment down by 9,000, first drop in more than a year, presumably reflecting housing slowdown. Those numbers have been strikingly resilient, clocking gains even amid the slump.
— Neil Irwin (@Neil_Irwin) April 7, 2023
The annual pace of growth in residential building construction employment was the slowest since Feb 2021. It’s likely that the labor market will slow alongside the slowdown in homebuilding and a weaker housing market. (12/12)
— Odeta Kushi (@odetakushi) April 7, 2023
Black unemployment rate falls to 5.0 percent, for Black women the unemployment rate falls to 4.2 percent, both record lows
— Dean Baker (@DeanBaker13) April 7, 2023
Interesting coincidence that once the median Baby Boomer became eligible for Social Security we got the lowest Black unemployment rate ever and the highest prime-age employment-population ratio in 22 years.
— Conor Sen (@conorsen) April 7, 2023
I expect we go from 300k + monthly job growth (avg past 6 months) to 100k (avg next 6 months). This will feel uncomfortable as unemployment notches up, but it is consistent with moderating inflation and no recession. Assuming the Fed stops tightening and nothing else goes wrong.
— Mark Zandi (@Markzandi) April 7, 2023
Pulling off a soft landing is still going to be difficult, but the initial descent is going well so far.
— Nick Bunker (@nick_bunker) April 7, 2023
In sum,
— Aaron Sojourner (@aaronsojourner) April 7, 2023
- great news: economy continues adding jobs, lots of opportunity,
- even greater: Americans coming off the sidelines as employment & labor force participation rates up, expanding supply
- mixed: wage pressure moderating
Still holding hope for soft landing.
