'This Is Going To Get Harder': Economists React To June Jobs Report On Twitter
Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 4.8 million jobs in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday.
The unemployment rate declined to 11.1%.
"These improvements in the labor market reflected the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it," the Bureau of Labor Statistics wrote in its report.
Leisure and hospitality accounted for about 40% of the increase, adding 2.1 million jobs in June after adding 1.4 million in May. The industry has lost 4.8 million jobs since February.
Construction employment grew by 158,000 jobs for the month, but the industry has lost 472,000 jobs since February.
Retail trade added 740,000 jobs in June, including 202,000 jobs added in clothing and clothing accessories stores. Manufacturing employment grew by 356,000 jobs, more than half of which came from motor vehicles and parts.
Here's how economists and others reacted to the jobs report on Twitter.
Today’s #jobs report shows two months in a row of payroll employment gains, an increase in jobs of 4.8 million in June on top of 2.7 million in May. But, because so many jobs were lost in March and April, we are still 14.7 million jobs below where we were in February. pic.twitter.com/JZcaFm02xt
— Elise Gould (@eliselgould) July 2, 2020
How much work is left to do? A lot. Not one area of the economy is back to pre-virus levels; the vast majority not even close. pic.twitter.com/auLAw5PfOU
— Steven Rattner (@SteveRattner) July 2, 2020
The good news: about 1/3 of jobs lost between Feb and April are back. The bad news: permanent layoffs are now about 20% of total and rising each month. And, with the surge in new virus cases, July and beyond will likely show weaker gains. Too soon to pop the champagne...
— Harry J. Holzer (@HolzerHarry) July 2, 2020
The 7.5 million jobs added in the last two months were the easy part of the recovery--almost all recalled from temporary layoff.
— Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) July 2, 2020
In April 78% of the unemployed reported being on temporary layoff, now only 60% do. This is going to get harder.
This is the “checkmark-shaped” recovery economists are talking about: There’s an initial wave of job gains when people return to work, but a whole bunch of permanently laid off workers still stranded when the wave recedes. https://t.co/tX2DlXGRvI
— Benjy Sarlin (@BenjySarlin) July 2, 2020
What should give us pause about this is the recent surge in COVID cases and the multitude of state re-closings, most of which happened after the week that today's jobs reports surveyed.
— Ernie Tedeschi (@ernietedeschi) July 2, 2020
The next couple of months may see a slower pace than May and June and perhaps backtrack.
This morning's initial claims report revealed that 2.3 million people applied for unemployment insurance (regular state + federal PUA) *last week*. This many new people entering the jobless queue this far past the shutdowns suggests that deeper recessionary forces are taking hold
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) July 2, 2020
Temporary layoff unemployment continues to trend down, but more sustained job loss is ticking up pic.twitter.com/Gq9pXdq8Op
— Nick Bunker (@nick_bunker) July 2, 2020
These two headwinds (PPP layoffs and closing small businesses) will continue to grow, as will the number of unemployment who are permanent job losers. The economy will need more momentum in July to offset this and not see a slower pace of growth. Clock is ticking.
— Adam Ozimek (@ModeledBehavior) July 2, 2020
As the economy added 4.8 million jobs, state governments shed another 25,000 jobs--this is the fourth month in a row that state governments have lost jobs. And it will only get worse without fiscal relief.
— Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) July 2, 2020
Nearly all of the jobs rebound has been in low work-from-home industries, which shut and are re-opening.
— Jed Kolko (@JedKolko) July 2, 2020
But jobs in high WFH industries down 4.5%, w little rebound. In Great Recession, jobs in those same industries fell 3.9% peak-to-trough. We're in for some long-term damage. pic.twitter.com/GfONQ7hnXQ
In short, remember that millions of temporary furloughs ending can hide a lot of economic damage. Beneath a rapid rebound in payrolls businesses are still failing, shrinking, and turning temporary job loss permanent. These are the ingredients of a slow recovery.
— Adam Ozimek (@ModeledBehavior) July 2, 2020
