When Will We See A Hiring Slowdown? Not Yet.
Tomorrow’s April jobs report will signal a strong US labor market, as employers added 200,000 workers in April, compared to 215,000 in March, according to the median prediction of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The numbers are in line with the Q1 average of 209,000.
“April employment will be decent,” Deutsche Bank chief US economist Joseph LaVorgna tells Bloomberg. “A trend-like payrolls number doesn’t do much, but a weak number has a much bigger potential to change expectations. People will revisit the idea of the second-quarter rebound.”
Still, some forecasts disagree—figures from ADP Research Institute this week put April’s job gains at 156,000 workers, the fewest since April 2013, Bloomberg reports.
But overall economists say a sudden collapse in hiring is unlikely, citing low jobless claims, which have stayed under 300,000 for their longest stretch since 1973.
“Overall, we’d go for a view that we’ll have a healthy number,” said David Sloan, senior economist at 4cast Inc, who predicts a 240,000 gain. [Bloomberg]