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These Economists Say There's Less Than A 10% Chance Of A Recession In The Next Year

It is unlikely a recession will occur in the U.S. within the next 12 months. Deutsche Bank economists estimate there is less than a 10% chance. 


Though this assessment does not align with the current U.S. yield curve, which suggests a 33% chance of a recession occurring within the next year, Deutsche Bank analysts point to the country's strong labor and housing markets, which they said should continue to perform well through June 2018, Reuters reports.

The Labor Department turned out a mixed jobs report for May. Though hiring slowed, missing analyst estimates, unemployment fell to 16-year lows. Should the labor market continue to tighten, economists said the Fed may be forced to be more aggressive in the pace of its rate increases.

Economists overwhelmingly predict a short-term interest rate hike coming this week following the Federal Reserve's two-day board meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. Should the Fed proceed as projected and bump its benchmark rate by a quarter point to a range of 1% to 1.25%, it will mark the fourth move made since December 2015.