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After "two to three years of relative calm," Citigroup analysts say poor economic fundamentals show the risk of a global recession rising.
"We are currently in a highly precarious environment for global growth and asset markets," they wrote in a note Wednesday.
In addition, concerns about a structural slowdown in China, excessive leverage and regional risks (like a potential “Brexit”) could all weigh heavily on the economy, CNBC reports.
Meanwhile, Wells Fargo's John Silvia (pictured) sees a 23.5% chance of a recession in the next six months, from modeling done based on employment and stock indexes.
Citigroup’s forecast defines a global recession as below 2% growth, different than the traditional requirement of falling GDP for two consecutive quarters.
That said, Citigroup doesn’t see a recession as the most likely scenario, forecasting 2.5% growth this year. [CNBC]
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