BISNOW SURVEY: Deal Volume And Rate Cuts Are Coming, But The Easy Part Ends There

After surviving 2025, a majority of Bisnow readers are ready to get more in the deal mix in ‘26.

More than two-thirds of respondents to Bisnow’s 2026 predictions survey expect commercial real estate activity will be higher this year than it was in 2025. And more than 93% of the close to 1,000 readers who answered the survey believe there are more interest rate cuts on the horizon.

But readers also have concerns for the year ahead. 

The continued effects of tariffs and the Trump administration’s changing policies were among the most frequently listed challenges for 2026, as was the role artificial intelligence would play in the commercial real estate industry — two issues that also feature prominently in 48 CRE executives’ discussion of their biggest struggle this year. 

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times during the second half of 2025, and nearly 75% of Bisnow readers expect there will be two or more rate cuts in 2026.

The numbers reflect even more confidence than last year’s Bisnow survey, in which 71% of respondents hung their hat on two or more rate cuts happening. Just 3% are betting against any cuts this year, and less than that anticipate rates will go back up in 2026.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated the central bank was getting more comfortable with current rate levels following the third cut of 2025. 

“The fed funds rate is now within a broad range of estimates of its neutral value, and we are well positioned to wait to see how the economy evolves,” Powell said in December. 

CRE is indicating it is ready to pick up the pace on deals, with or without additional cuts. But an increase in transaction volume doesn’t guarantee the best deals.

“2026 will be awash in deal flow of low quality,” an institutional investor in New York said in Bisnow’s survey.

That investor expects sorting through unrealistic pitch decks and doing due diligence will be a significant challenge in the year ahead.

Bisnow collected information about respondents' occupations, locations and years in the industry for its 2026 survey but didn't require names.

Nearly two-thirds of respondents said lending conditions will improve in the year ahead. 

Almost 10% of those expect conditions to be significantly easier, while 53% said things would be slightly easier. Nearly 24% anticipate no meaningful change in lending conditions this year, and more than 13% expect things could be tighter. 

A banking veteran from South Florida said easier conditions will create a competitive lending landscape that will be a big challenge in 2026.

With lower interest rates freeing up capital and presenting additional financing opportunities, almost 40% of Bisnow readers plan to rotate their assets during 2026, selling off some and reinvesting in new properties. 

Just over 30% expect to accelerate acquisitions to grow their portfolios, and almost a quarter of respondents will hold on to their current investments. The remaining 5% plan to be net sellers to reduce exposure. 

“The early part of 2026 will still be difficult,” a veteran developer from the Southeast said. “We are hoping things loosen by midyear and we can achieve close to anticipated returns.”

Respondents were split on which asset class would deliver the biggest upside return this year, though data centers were the choice of nearly 28% of readers. Multifamily at almost 20% and industrial/logistics at more than 13% were the next highest predictions.

Data center construction could hinder development for the other asset classes as it consumes resources and makes construction more costly across property types, according to a Utah-based contractor who specializes in multifamily and healthcare projects.

While the growth of AI is underpinning the economy and data center expansion, it is expected to present some of the biggest hurdles readers face in 2026. 

Some are concerned about adapting to commercial real estate changes brought by AI, while others worry about overinvestment and the AI bubble bursting. But the most common challenge related to the technology involved figuring out the best method for implementation.

A Dallas-Fort Worth homebuilder with more than a decade in the industry wants to stay ahead of AI opportunities without overplaying the tool. But a CRE accountant and tax adviser said the technology can help streamline daily operations and improve efficiency.

“AI can help automate some routine tasks and free up time for more strategic work,” the accountant said. “By analyzing real-time data, AI will enable smarter decision-making, reduce costs and ensure smoother day-to-day operations as we adapt to evolving work patterns.”

A respondent in architecture and design from California said AI could also increase consumer spending, help spur initial public offerings and lead to changes in the proptech market.

Other common headwinds listed by Bisnow readers include uncertainty around tariffs and decisions from the Trump administration. 

A Texas-based developer said the cost of imported material due to tariffs will be their firm’s biggest challenge this year. 

“It will be at least a full year before there's enough stateside manufacturing to buy U.S.-produced products and construction materials at competitive prices to bring down inflation,” the developer said.

In addition to tariffs, an Atlanta developer with more than 20 years of experience said conflicts in South America and Ukraine could provide headwinds this year. And political uncertainty was listed as a concern by respondents from both coasts, Canada and Great Britain.

A consultant from the Northeast said the Trump administration's “erratic behavior” would be a challenge, while a respondent from a Dallas architecture and design firm said it will have to continue guessing what the federal government will do and which of its decisions will stand.

In New York City, new Mayor Zohran Mamdani's incoming administration also spurred concerns of political uncertainty. A residential sales agent from the city cautioned against allowing local politics to get in the way of negotiations, while others anticipate turmoil from Mamdani’s decisions.

“The biggest challenge will be finding the right buyers and navigating the new policies of the incoming mayoral administration,” a veteran developer from the Big Apple said.