Three CMBS Trends to Watch in 2015

Despite the economy’s brighter outlook, we still live in a financially distressed world, says Hart Advisors Group CEO Tanya Little (left, with Hudson Peters' Janice Peters at Bisnow's Power Women event last summer).

1. Distressed Debt

While DFW market is going strong, many markets throughout the country are still distressed, especially in the secondary and tertiary markets where job markets have not yet recovered, Tanya tells us. Commercial real estate rents still haven't seen a full rent recovery (back to 2007 rates), even in some major markets. Interest rates are at record lows; however, there is a real fear that interest rates will rise later this year, driving more defeased loans in the CMBS space.

2. Loan Maturities Coming

There’s a tremendous number of maturities that will fuel the CMBS market this year, as well as the next two years, Tanya says. In 2015 alone, more than $70B in CMBS will be maturing and while many of these loans have recovered, a solid 25% of them are reported on watch lists or are in special servicing (Source: Morningstar Credit Ratings). For stabilized assets (which Tanya is seeing more and more locally), CMBS is a favorite. Borrowers are looking at non-recourse 10-year money at low rates, she tells us. Regardless of product type, CMBS can be extremely attractive for borrowers to lock in 10-year rates, especially with rising interest rates suggested by the Fed for later this year. There should be a flurry of activity this quarter for those owners who can refi or put debt on their product sooner rather than later, she says. (Dallas Federal Reserve Bank pictured.)

3. Strong Originations

CMBS originations will continue to grow, likely topping $100M in 2015, Tanya tells us. But, underwriting standards weakened in 2014, which could lead to future issues like we saw during the recession. There’s more than 40 different CMBS origination platforms competing for the same product. As a result, Tanya thinks that origination underwriting standards may continue to decline as lenders fight to win deals. Opportunities are abundant for any type of commercial real estate asset because there is still an enormous amount of capital in the market.

Continue reading this story with a free account

Log in or register
Sign up for more articles like this
Subscribe to Bisnow's Dallas-Fort Worth Newsletters
Related Stories

After Departing Trump Admin, HUD's Former Philly Head Joins Local Planning Commission

Investors Anchor Big Capital Into Marinas, Betting On Shallow Supply

Developers Eyeing Dallas' 50-Mile Trails Loop For Uptown-Like Opportunities

Large Commercial Real Estate Sales Up 30% Despite Economic Headwinds

How Addison, Texas, Upholds Its Regulatory Standards And Keeps Building Projects Moving Forward

Chetrit Group 'Being Dissolved' As Family Turmoil Spirals

Dallas-Based White Rose Partners Seeks To Build Data Center In Prosper

Avison Young Plans Second Major Recapitalization Since 2024

Judge Approves $70M Sale Of Philly's Largest Office Complex

Kidder Mathews Establishes First Texas Office In DFW, Adds 6 New Brokers

Jackson-Shaw Breaks Ground On Huge Industrial Park In Denton: The DFW Deal Sheet

EXCLUSIVE: Building On Former Denver Johnson & Wales Campus To Sell For $11M