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Looking to 2011

Dallas-Ft. Worth

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Looking to 2011
The JLL crystal ball didn't quite tell us to break out the bubbly, but an expert panel did reach consensus: 2.4% job growth for 2011 in Dallas, following almost 29k new jobs in the past 12 months. Market signs point to a cyclical recovery, according to JLL's market review and forecast at its Preston Center offices Thursday.
 
Boots Nowlin, Jeff Staubach and Torrey Littlejohn
We caught up with JLL managing director Jeff Staubach (center with Deutsche Bank Alex. Brown director Boots Nowlin and JLL VP Torrey Littlejohn), who tells us the downturn impacted green efforts. Because LEED adds costs to new construction, he’s seeing more companies choosing not to pursue LEED certification. Still, more firms are looking to locate near public transportation, use water-saving practices, and reduce waste, he says. Jeff’s latest coup: inking the 46k SF relocation of MoneyGram (with colleague Brooke Armstrong) to 2828 N. Harwood.
Jeff Staubach, Steve Everbach, Terry Darrow, Torrey Littlejohn, Jack Crews, Paul House and  Paul Whitman
The panel: Jeff, managing directors Steve EverbachTerry Darrow, Torrey, managing directors Jack Crews and Paul House and moderator, DFW/KC prez Paul Whitman. Terry says diesel prices will likely continue to increase, leading industrial firms to use more hub and spoke distribution centers close to population areas instead of a few large distribution centers across the US. “We’ll see more like six or seven facilities to cut transportation costs, which make up 40% of expenses for a business. Rent makes up about 4%,” he adds, which will positively impact the DFW market.
Jack Crews and Paul House
Paul H., right, with Jack, says there’s $1.5T in debt expiring and not enough capital to refinance it. “We’ll see restructures and extensions on a lot of debt,” he says. In Uptown  Plaza in Houston, the owner got a 30% discount on a $20M loan. It took 90 days to work on the deal and the loan agent had 40 deals he was working on alone. The special servicer has more than 1k loans they’re working through, he says. The good news, Paul W. says, is the DFW population is projected to increase to 9M by 2025, something that will impact everyone in CRE. Adding 3M people in the next 15 years gives us a lot to look forward to.