REAL ESTATE HO, HO, HUH?
|Christmas has come early for Boston real estate, assuming your Christmas is like ours: crying, praying for next year, the occasional gift of good news, quickly torpedoed by reality. OK, the NAIOP annual forecast last Thursday wasn't that bad. But our in-laws read this, and we didn't want them coming to our place this season.|
|A full house visited the Hyatt in Downtown Crossing, with folks looking for a bright note amid news that downtown office vacancies rose to 9.5%, average Class A asking rents fell to $43.92, and sales volume slid 90% through 3Q. The genial panelists: Lincoln Property's Gregory Cahill, Grubb & Ellis? Jack Kerrigan, Cushman & Wakefield's Mark Winters, and CBRE's Christopher Cuddy.|
|Ever the optimist, Richards Barry & Joyce?s Frank Petz concedes we're playing ?small ball.? But he feels Boston isdoing better than some office markets, NYC included, just not as hot as DC. (We remind everyone that Derek Jeter doesn?t play for the Nationals, so we're fine with this.) Frank thinks that Boston will get swept up in the vitality now invigorating Asia and Europe. Even the specter of more owners moving toward default could pump sales, with more landlords willing to sell and buyers relenting on vulture pricing.|
|Perspective from PPR CEO Bret Wilkerson: ?That we're debating if the recovery is a V or W is amazing after last spring?s meltdown.? His prediction that Boston/Cambridge office markets could see double digit rent increases once the recovery takes hold may very well be his last. That's not a threat; the 38-year-old is leaving the prominent research firm. Over his 14 years, it grew from 5 to 75 here, London, and Hong Kong, and was bought by CoStar. One more tip, for old time?s sake: ?The next 5-7 years in commercial real estate look to be very strong on the debt and equity side."|