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Dublin, Manchester and Birmingham's New Best Friend: 'Limited Late-Cycle Development Exuberance'

2 Arena Central - now 1 Centenary Square - Birmingham, the new HSBC office
2 Arena Central — now 1 Centenary Square — Birmingham, the new HSBC office

A lack of office supply will be the main driver of above-average rental growth in Dublin, Manchester and Birmingham, new research from JLL has concluded.

Thanks to what they call "limited late-cycle development exuberance" all three cities are within the top 15 European hotspots for office rental growth.

"Limited late cycle development exuberence" translates as a market potentially less burdened by new supply than at this stage in the 1999-2003 and 2007-2010 cycles. Even so JLL say more new floorspace will be completed in Europe in 2018 than in any year since 2010.

JLL's analysis of supply sensitivity in 35 European cities concludes that in Dublin (ranked third) and Manchester (ranked eighth) the limited supply of new office space and strong take-up means that the availability of new floorspace will be pushed well below the stable trend line.

However, when JLL assessed each market's speed of response to changes in the supply they concluded that Dublin was 10th, with both Manchester and Birmingham lower. Adjusting for the known and anticipated rate of growth of occupier demand pushed Manchester and Birmingham back into ninth and 10th places respectively.