Investment in offices in the Netherlands surged in the first half of 2026. At €985M, this figure is up 66% year-over-year, more than double the low achieved in 2023.

While these statistics are encouraging for the market, a trend is clear: Domestic investors, mainly private, are behind the lion’s share of transactions, both individually and in partnerships. International and institutional capital is waiting on the sidelines.

There’s also evidence that while office investment has risen, the sector isn’t necessarily being favored above other asset classes. Dutch investment was up in H1 across the board — retail volumes increased almost 30%, and residential investment grew 43%.

Institutional capital continuing to shy away from office investments is part of a pan-European phenomenon applying to nearly all European office markets as well as the Netherlands, said Ali Otmar, senior partner and head of investments at Tristan Capital. And there are two key reasons.

Since the end of 2022, investors have been looking to reallocate capital into new, growing sectors such as digital infrastructure or resilient sectors such as living and hospitality.

“Living is resilient as there is no substitute for basic housing needs from an occupational point of view, and most core investors are under-allocated from a capital markets point of view,” he said. 

Similarly, for hospitality, the argument is that the demand for the "experience economy" remains unabated, regardless of technological developments.

On top of this, despite a resurgence in capital markets activity, the office sector faces an enormous headwind: artificial intelligence. The current unknowns surrounding the rapid acceleration of AI are making it difficult to underwrite the rental profile of office assets, Otmar said.

“AI is not yet demonstrably destroying office demand, but uncertainty over headcount, productivity and space requirements is increasing underwriting risk,” he said. “Investors worry about catching a falling knife.”

This is despite office availability for occupiers reaching its lowest level in 25 years in the Netherlands due to a lack of recent development. A lack of prime offices has pushed rents up to €650 per square meter in Amsterdam’s business district, the Zuidas.

Even with strong rents, AI and geopolitical events are creating a market in which it is hard to price offices consistently, Otmar said.

“The underlying rental tone of offices still holds up, and the lack of new development over the last five years has kept supply in check, [but] the bid-ask spread between buyers and sellers is wide, resulting in very few transactions,” he said.

Tristan Capital is well versed in Dutch real estate, having invested more than €2B of assets since 2015 and disposed of nearly €1B. Offices accounted for almost 40% of that activity.

Its transactions include the acquisition of a Dutch office portfolio comprising 12 assets located in Utrecht and Rotterdam for €118M in 2018 and a portfolio of six office assets in Amsterdam totaling 126,000 square meters for €370M from Commerz Real in 2019.

Since it began investing in the asset class in 2015, the investor’s rationale for offices has changed, Otmar said. Initially, the investor was drawn to the oversupply left by high development activity before the Global Financial Crisis.

Tristan Capital acquired a large proportion of those office assets in a period when many offices were converted to other uses, leaving low office vacancy and subsequent rental growth.

Today, the Netherlands is in a period of heightened inflation, a reset of the interest rate cycle and multiple geopolitical disruptions that have led to a complete repricing of the office market, Otmar said.

“We are now entering a period of long, drawn-out cyclical recovery,” he said. “After a market reset, usually there is a period when investors stop differentiating between the good, the bad and the ugly and deploy capital into properties that have the lowest volatility of cash flows — in other words, better-quality properties in better locations.”

This focus on specific, well-performing assets rather than a sectorwide approach is likely to lead to the greatest amount of activity lying in the core areas of cities, he said, such as the Canal District in Amsterdam or the train station areas in Utrecht and Rotterdam.

In H1 2026, office investment activity focused on existing, future-proof buildings in high-quality locations near public transport hubs. The number of investors looking outside these parameters is limited.

Recent deals include Corum’s acquisition of Malietoren in The Hague, a 150K SF office building.

Despite this activity, Tristan Capital is not focusing its attention on the office market in the Netherlands, Otmar said.

It will take some time for the impact of AI and geopolitical events to play out in the investment market, and Tristan Capital is instead focusing on residential, hospitality, logistics and digital infrastructure.

“We are going through the repercussions of this great new technology, which is going to change office occupation one more time within the same decade,” he said. “I am not making a call for investing in offices here and now, but if you invest in good-quality buildings in good-quality locations, they will always find their true value.”

Ali Otmar will be speaking at Bisnow's Netherlands Office: The Dutch Office Revival event on Sept. 15.