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Commercial real estate loan defaults are on the rise, and borrowing costs are expected to increase in 2017 boosting the likelihood of a slowdown in the $11 trillion commercial property sector next year.
Analysts are expecting an increase in financial regulations that will make some CRE borrowing more expensive and difficult, similar to regulations enacted during the financial crisis, the Wall Street Journal reports. Interest rates are expected to move next month in spite of the election of President-elect Donald Trump, and experts project we’ll see interest rates continue to rise from historic lows next year, further tightening an industry dependent on borrowed money.
More than 5.6% of $390B worth of CMBS loans in September were paid more than 60 days late, and Morningstar Credit Ratings predicts about 40% of CMBS loans coming due next year will not be paid off. [WSJ]
