Watch These Stats

This morning'sBureau of Labor Statistics report reads a lot like last month's.175,000 jobs created in May. 7.6% unemployment.That means the economy is still on the right track. But until it starts going faster, multifamily won't feel the love.Auction.com's Chris Muoio tells us what to watch for among jobs and other indicators.

1. Unemployment--Once the pace of job creation goes up more drastically, youth unemployment, which is especially high, will drop and more youngsters will start plying the Craigslist apartment ads, he says. (If only there was a REIT dedicated to buying parents' basements, they'd be rich right now.)Longer term, healthier employment means homeownership will stop sliding. That'll drag down demand for multifamily.

2. Interest rates--Chris tells us the recent rise in the 10-year Treasury from 1.7% on May 1 to 2.2% on Monday isn't a big deal. The uptick was at least partially caused by media speculation about how the Fed would unwind quantitative easing once it's time (inflation up to 2.5% or 3% and unemployment down to 6% or 6.5%). Plus, it'd already dropped back to 2.08% by yesterday. Chris also says multifamily will still be the favorite property type among investors once interest rates do rise.

3. Construction permits--As vacancy bottoms out in some markets, the number of construction permits alarms Chris. New multifamily construction is about to overwhelm Austin (above), Dallas, DC, and to a lesser extent Boston (cranes will be added to the invasive species list), he tells us, and vacancies are going to rise over the next three to five years.

Related Topics: Labor Statistics
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