Welcome to our first issue of Multifamily Bisnow.Were gonna hit you with the movers and shakers, major deals, and significant trends affecting your sector nationwide. First up: The hot multifamily markets of 2013 and those that need to cool it.

This year should see effective rent growth of 3.6% nationwide, while the overall growth will be about the same as last year, says Dallas-based Axiometrics research VP Jay Denton (hamming it up with his coworkers). The national average occupancy rate for stabilized product should hit 94.9%. (He also says neon is out this year.)

The above stats may look strong, but it's not all good news. (Paging oversupply.) Roughly 164,000 units will deliver in '13, nearly double last year's. Although 150 MSAs will see new units this year, it's not an even spread;one-third will be concentrated inDC, Dallas, New York, Seattle, Austin, and Houston. The problem: concession levels and absorption rates could be impacted negatively. Jay says the next dominoes to fall will be Class-A effective rent growth and occupancy, which will eventually lead to the other classes and submarkets softening.

Two submarkets are on Jay's oversupply watch list for the next two years:Houston's Montrose-River Oaks and Seattle's Downtown-Capitol Hill-Queen Anne.Montrose will deliver more units this year (3,770) than the entire MSAs of Atlanta, Boston, San Jose, Orlando, and Nashville. So far, effective Class-A rent growth there is 8.3%, and occupancy is 96%. Seattle's hotspot isn't far behind, with 3,514 units delivering on the heels of 1,000 units from Q4 '12 and 2,210 under way for '14. (Seattle apartment buildings are like Lay's potato chips. You can't build just one. Also, nobody likes sour cream and onion buildings.)