Multifamily Monster?

The main scoop on multifamily in 2013 has been that many US markets are overbuilt. (Were there enough babies born in the 80s to fill all these beds?) But according to Delta Associates CEO Greg Leisch, we might just make it after all.

Greg says job growth in gateway markets like DC, New York, Boston, LA, and San Francisco is high enough to absorb the threat of overbuilding. And theres lots of pent-up demand in those cities, especially among young professionals, which bodes well for the immediate development pipeline, he adds. Younger folks--either those currently doubling up with friends or shacking up with mom and dad (both currently at record levels, Greg says)--should start renting in strong numbers. (Which is great news for multifamily owners and parents.) As confidence and income levels grow, these people will move in to apartments, he adds.

Greg adds that owners and managers in those gateway markets are getting smart by reducing unit size to keep units affordable, too. But he says overbuilding may rear its head on markets with low barriers to entry, like Atlanta, Phoenix, and Miami. And he tells us that fast-growing markets like Houston and Dallas may lose chunks of their rental bases to people deciding to buy instead. Ultimately, though, Greg believes that market fundamentals are resilient enough on the demand side to absorb overbuilding in most areas. (And investors--in DC at least--are taking notice: Heres a shot of The District, a 125-unit, under-construction property which JP Morgan bought Wednesday for $76M, the highest price-per-unit ever in the city.)

Related Topics: Club Wicked
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