The ramp-up of apartment construction is causing a lot of speculation as to whether well have a multifamily bubble. We asked McKenna Long & Aldridge partner Nancy Scull, who points out that the factors that drove the housing downturn arent issues with multifamily activity today (no liar loans, for example.) Shes doing a lot of work on behalf of developers who are building apartments to help jumpstart large-scale communities.
Case in point: a project called Civita in San Diego (above, Circa 37 apartment building in the mixed-use community), where both the rental and for-sale components have been so successful that theyre going forward with new phases of each. Nancys also working on a TOD in New Jersey. In addition, shes seeing urban town centersbasically, cities within cities being developed in previously suburban areas, and the apartments are every bit as important as the for-sale, retail, and entertainment components, she says.
AMLI CEO Greg Mutz agrees we're nowhere close to a multifamily bubble. (He and other experts will engage in the timeless boom v. bubble debate at Bisnow's annual Chicago Multifamily Summit March 14.) Construction costs are going up more rapidly than anybody anticipated; and development is slowing as labor and materials become more costly, pro forma returns look less robust, and local permitting agencies back up and slow down the process. Trends point toward sufficient demand to occupy most new supply in the pipeline, although there will be pressure in some submarkets on occupancy and rental rates, Greg tells us. AMLI has a full plate of developments, including three deals on tap in Chicago. Hes seen great success in Austin, Houston, Dallas, Atlanta, Chicago, and Seattle and has no plans to expand beyond its nine markets.
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