More than $1T of real estate is at risk of wildfires in just the 10 most at-risk states across the country, new research from analytics firm Cotality shows.

More than 2.5 million properties across the 10 most exposed states carry at least a moderate wildfire risk, representing roughly $1.4T in reconstruction cost value. The new maps put more properties at risk than previously by accounting for how wildfires spread from home to home.

The data will help underwriters move away from broad-brush risk assessments and safely expand their underwriting footprint, Cotality Director of Hazard Insights Jamie Knippen said in a release.

“Hearing that a property has a higher risk score than previously thought should not be thought of as a bad thing. It shows that new data and analytic capabilities create an opportunity to protect properties more effectively in the evolving wildfire environment we’re facing,” he said. 

The report used four key factors to measure how wildfire risk can escalate into broader exposure: a risk assessment, property-level mitigation efforts, insurance coverage and dynamic landscape changes. In 2025, Cotality said there was $1.3T in at-risk properties spread across a larger field of 13 Western states. 

Cotality found that California carries the greatest share of exposure to wildfire, with 1.28 million properties at risk that would cost $850B to rebuild. 

But the risk extends deep into other Western states, with just under half of all at-risk properties in the 10 most exposed states sitting outside California. A quarter of the remaining wildfire risk is found in Colorado and Texas, where 560,000 at-risk properties represent $252B in reconstruction costs. 

The top 10 is rounded out by Oregon, Arizona, Idaho, New Mexico, Montana, Washington and Utah. 

Los Angeles remains the most exposed metro area, with 250,000 at-risk properties, and California has six of the 10 most exposed cities. Austin leads cities in other states, with $49B in properties at risk, followed by San Antonio, Denver and Spokane, Washington.

Cotality said the number of at-risk properties increases significantly when accounting for conflagration, the process where fuel for fire moves from wildland into a neighborhood and spreads from home to home. 

The study also suggests that local mitigation efforts have positive impacts, with the communities ranked highest for property-level mitigation efforts in California carrying a 78% lower expected loss rate than the statewide average. 

“Expanding the assessment means going beyond terrain and vegetation to look at factors like structure density, building materials, wind patterns and ember exposure,” Knippen said. “Carriers that account for these factors upfront can make sure homes are properly insured for the catastrophe they actually face — not just the forest fire, but the fire next door.”

Pandemic-era migration trends pushed more Americans into fire-prone areas, and climate change has left 41% of occupied rental units at risk of extreme weather events. Rising insurance costs in more recent years have slowed some of that migration, John Rogers, chief data and analytics officer at Cotality, said onstage at the 2026 National Association of Real Estate Editors conference in June.