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Online sales coupled with rising business rates have made survival on the traditional high street increasingly challenging for retailers in the UK over the past decade. The latest Cushman & Wakefield research report - U.K. High Streets: Dead or Alive? based on studying the resilience of 250 shopping towns - makes grim reading for many.
But what does it mean for Manchester? Here are the four big take-aways.
1. Rents In Manchester Haven't Fallen Much, Relatively Speaking
The North West has seen rents slide by a staggering 38%, worse than any other U.K. region. Manchester, however, came out among the tier one locations for retail reslience with rents down by no more than 7%.
2. Manchester Has Some Aces Up Its Sleeve
Being big, relatively affluent and well-known comes with massive advantages. Like other tier one locations the city benefits from relatively low levels of comparison floorspace (SF per 1,000 population) and higher spending densities (£ per SF). There is also plenty of tourist spending sloshing around: tier one locations see 694% more tourist spending that the no-hopers in tier five.
Over confidence would not be wise, despite these pluses. Manchester is ranked 38th in the top 50 high streets. Liverpool is at 34, Chester at 47.
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3. Retailer Demand Is Down But Stable
Tier one locations have seen retailer demand fall by around 5% - unwelcome, but modest compared with 10-25% in all other locations.
4. There May Be More Trouble Ahead
Whilst Manchester looks to be surviving better than many retail locations, calculations about retail rent affordability might raise eyebrows - and suggest further slides in rent can be expected.
Cushman & Wakefield say retail rents ought to be in the range 8-12% of comparison retail turnover. In 60 locations they exceed 15% and conclude they may be "on the high side" in those towns.
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