Investment Heads For A Deep Freeze As Half Of London Assets Fall Into The Red. U.S. Cities Are Not Far Behind

Up to half of all commercial property in London, almost a third in Washington, D.C., and about a quarter in New York could be worth less than what owners originally paid for it. And because human psychology resists taking a loss, the real estate investment market is likely in for a deep freeze, according to a new analysis.

In a note this week, MSCI Real Assets analyzed the average price drop of assets in cities across the world and the amount of time they are typically held to estimate the impact of loss aversion on market liquidity.

London is the worst city in the world in terms of properties sinking below purchase price, with more than 50% in the red, according to the analysis, led by MSCI Head of Research Tom Leahy. It was closely followed by Hong Kong.

Among major U.S. cities, Washington, D.C., had the highest proportion of assets that could be in the red at 30%, followed by New York and San Francisco. Boston and Los Angeles were in the best position, according to the analysis.

The fact that assets are worth less than their purchase prices has significant implications for the market, Leahy said.

Studies undertaken by behavioural psychologists have repeatedly found that humans are deeply loss-averse. In commercial real estate terms, owners tend to sell winners but hold onto losers, unwilling to take a loss on a prior investment even if the price might go down further.

This unwillingness to accept loss is contributing to the freezing of global investment markets, Leahy said. Markets with the highest proportion of assets likely in the red have seen the biggest drops in liquidity, per his analysis.

The aversion to loss is creating a large gap between the price at which owners are willing to sell and what investors are willing to pay, with owners tending to anchor their sales price to the price they paid for an asset.

The biggest gap between buyers and sellers is in San Francisco, Leahy said, where it is close to 40%. In London, the gap is about 20%.

Leahy said that "investors should consider that the loss-aversion trend may ensure that the current period of low liquidity persists."

Continue reading this story with a free account

Log in or register
Sign up for more articles like this
Subscribe to Bisnow's London Newsletters
Related Stories

JVP Development Is Betting $37M Of Its Own Money That Frisco Is Ready For Spec Office

Wall Street Impatient For Big Tech Returns On Data Center Spending

As AI Adoption Ramps Up, Half A Million Property Managers Are In The Crosshairs

Treasuries Hover Around 4.7% As Wall Street Questions If Warsh Is A 'Dove In Hawk's Clothing'

Avison Young Had Assets Frozen By Bank Over Unpaid Taxes

Camden Property Trust Sells West Coast Portfolio, Clears $1.5B Target

Churchill Downs Plans To Sell 9 Casinos, Focus On Horse Racing

Bringing Stability And Savings To CRE Insurance Through Working Layer

More Hotel Owners In Need Of Cash Are Getting It From The Big Brands

Former Arms Dealer Targeting Heartland Apartment Takeover Files For Bankruptcy

SEC Charges REIT, Its Founders With Alleged $152M Fraud Scheme

Equinix Ramps Up Spending Plans Amid Faster-Than-Expected AI Shift