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The good news: There is a respected research firm that is much more optimistic than the Bank of England about what a no-deal Brexit will do to U.K. commercial property values.
The bad news is, they still think values will fall.
Last week, the Bank of England published its scenario analysis for the economy in the event of a no-deal Brexit, which ranged from a best case of a 27% fall in commercial property values over five years to a worst case of a 48% fall, deeper than the crash after the financial crisis.
But Capital Economics thinks the fall would only be 5% to 9%, much less than in past crashes.
“In a no deal environment, we would expect the Bank of England to cut rates and undertake new asset purchases to steady markets, similar to the aftermath of the EU referendum,” it said. “Looser policy will keep property yields lower than otherwise, but is unlikely to be enough to stop them rising altogether.”
Capital Economics thinks no matter what happens, values will fall by about 4%.
Both estimates need to be taken with a hefty pinch of salt. The Bank has been staunchly opposed to the idea of leaving the EU, whereas Capital Economics founder Roger Bootle is pro-Brexit. It is still unclear exactly what on earth will happen with Brexit, and whether we will get the chance to see who was right.
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