Retailers could face a €141M reduction in spending by 2028 if Dublin City Council’s new transport plan is implemented, according to an economic impact assessment commissioned by businesses opposed to the proposed changes.

An assessment produced for the Dublin City Centre Traders Alliance also estimates that the traffic plan could result in the loss of 1,787 retail jobs and a €41M loss to the exchequer.

However, proponents of the scheme say the lobby group has vested interests and has based its findings on outdated information.

Formed by solicitor Noel Smyth in 2015, DCCTA members include Brown Thomas Arnotts, Jervis Shopping Centre, Retail Excellence Ireland, the Restaurants Association of Ireland, Louis Copeland & Sons, the Irish Parking Association, Best Car Parks, Fitzwilliam Real Estate Capital and the owners of several city centre car parks.

At a council meeting on 1 July, chief executive Richard Shakespeare said he would wait to receive the report before deciding whether to go ahead with the first phase of changes in August. But Transport Minister Eamon Ryan has warned against diluting or delaying the plan, which aims to ease traffic congestion by reducing car journeys that cross the city centre.

The alliance said it had commissioned an economic impact report by Pat McCloughan of PMCA Economic Consultants over the traffic changes in the absence of an assessment by the council. A core premise of its findings is that car users spend more than other commuters.

“It therefore follows that by restricting car-user access to the city centre, the direct impact of the proposed traffic management changes will be to reduce retail spending in that part of the capital,” the report says.

Working on the premise that all the council’s proposed changes, including the removal of traffic from College Green, are complete by 2028, the report forecasts that retail spend between the canals would be reduced by €141.3M, with 1,787 direct job losses and another 4,445 lost in other sectors of the Irish economy costing a further €98M.

Rather than parts of the plan going separately to An Bord Pleanála, the entire scheme should go through a statutory planning application, the DCCTA said.

However, other groups have claimed that the DCCTA data is based on incorrect assumptions and outdated information.

“Just as we expected, the DCCTA is falsely predicting a collapse of city centre business based on completely poor metrics and understanding of how the plan fundamentally works. It fails to take into account any increase in any modal shift of public or active transport,” Dublin Commuter Coalition Chair Jason Cullen said in a statement.

He said that the report incorrectly assumes motorists driving through the city centre spend an average daily amount, based on a shopper survey from 2022.

Several major European retail streets have become pedestrian-only, and the changes met with strong resistance before implementation. But after completion, results tend to show a rejection of cars returning.

One such example is Buchanan Street in Glasgow, which excluded vehicles in 1978 in a move that helped Glasgow become the UK’s second-biggest shopping district, while plans are in place for the Champs-Élysées in Paris and other streets in the French capital to be car-free by 2030 in a €300M project.