Willy Walker: Data Shows Economic Resilience, Multifamily Rebound

Feeling barraged by a constant stream of often-confusing economic information?

Walker & Dunlop CEO Willy Walker has some simple advice: Ignore the “noise” and focus on the data.

“Everyone has a [social media] feed that is filled with noise,” he said on this week’s Walker Webcast, hosted at Walker & Dunlop’s Summer Conference. “It's clickbait. It's designed to tell you something that it actually wants you to think, and it's gotten quite hard to differentiate between what you’re seeing in the data and what you’re hearing in the marketplace.”

Heading into 2026, many were concerned about President Donald Trump’s tariffs, his immigration policies, and how they would impact the economy at-large — particularly the job market. But while many assumed the worst, the job market has stayed very strong, Walker said, and tariff increases didn’t cause a catastrophic collapse. 

Unemployment numbers have rested in the low 4% range, most recently at 4.2% in June — lower than many had expected. 

Also at the beginning of the year, people were uncertain and afraid of where artificial intelligence was heading. Now, a little more than halfway through the year, and while its ultimate impact is still uncertain, Walker rejected the popular notion that AI is an unstoppable force that’s out to steal jobs. 

“Trying to figure out where this is going and how to embrace and implement this technology is a big challenge for every single person in this room,” Walker said. “It is clearly a challenge for us, but as we all know, it's also a massive opportunity.”

But even if it doesn’t wipe out the job market, there will still be growing pains as companies adjust to the new normal, he said. Some companies will rise to the top, and some will falter, as CRE has seen with previous tech innovations. 

Real estate companies such as WeWork, Zillow and Compass Real Estate have disrupted the status quo with technological innovations in the past. Each received multibillion-dollar valuations at one point but later lost significant value. The race to implement AI may produce a similar pattern, Walker said. 

“The reason I put these three up here is not to poke fun at them but to say that there are companies that have already gone and broken the model,” he said. “They've come up with a new way of thinking about real estate or the data that sits below everything we've done. The question now is how quickly do we invest in [AI]? How is it going to change the world? That’s what we’re all trying to figure out.”

As for consumer sentiment, Walker noted it reached an all-time low of 44.8 in May. For nearly 75 years between 1952 and 2026, consumer sentiment was never lower — not even during the Great Financial Crisis, the dot-com bubble or the height of the Covid-19 pandemic. 

Sinking sentiment, he said, may reflect political division, ongoing wars and a widening wealth gap — even as data and stock market performance point to a different narrative.

“It's super concerning,” he said. “We've never had such a delta between consumer sentiment and the stock market. Typically, the stock market goes down with consumer sentiment. Today, it’s doing the opposite.”

The stock market’s “Magnificent Seven” are heavyweights pulling the economy forward, accounting for about 34% of the S&P 500. Their size and impact could be lifting the broader market, potentially inflating the performance of the economy. 

“The disparity is wildly troubling because [only] one of them's right,” Walker said. 

He clarified that with these diverging numbers, economic growth and population growth are not always related. Texas and Florida have both seen significant increases in population and gross domestic product, so one may expect states that have lost a portion of their population to see a decrease in GDP. This hasn’t been the case, especially for California and New York, he said.

California and New York have both experienced notable population decreases over the past several years, but their GDP continues to rise — California growing 3% annually since 2020 and New York at 2% annually over the same time period. This can be attributed to the large corporations that call these states home, Walker said. Businesses in these states are driving growth despite population loss.  

On the housing side of the economy, Walker said renting has a cost advantage over owning a home. The median home cost has reached about $415K, while the average two-bedroom apartment rent is around $1,800. By this metric, renting is more affordable than owning a home. 

“Multifamily has a built-in, intrinsic cost competitiveness against single-family that should make it have tailwinds as long as that delta is there,” he said. “Single-family is unaffordable. Multifamily is affordable on a relative basis in the U.S. today.”

After a rocky couple of years, the multifamily market seems to be improving overall, he said. Though new construction is declining, absorption is very strong, and national vacancy fell in Q2 to 8.9% — the first time it's fallen below 9% since 2024. The market is beginning to soak up the excess supply built during the Covid era, potentially leading to future rent growth, he said. 

Denver, he said, is a perfect illustration of what’s happening throughout the country. 

Ten years ago, Denver was building about 10,000 units annually, which amounted to between 2% and 3% rent growth, Walker said. In 2019 and 2020, new construction fell to about 7,000 units annually, and rent spiked. 

Then, from 2021 to 2023, new construction drastically rose to about 17,000 units annually, and rent fell flat — or even went negative. The city’s building pipeline is on a downward trajectory, he said, which could push the market toward a healthier state. 

“The first half of this year was the second highest absorption we've had in 16 years in the U.S., and only to be beaten by last year's first half,” Walker said. “We’re getting ourselves to a more normalized market where you can start to push rents.”

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This article was produced in collaboration between Walker & Dunlop and Studio B. Bisnow news staff was not involved in the production of this content. 

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