'Strong But Stable': Economists React To The November Jobs Report On X, Formerly Twitter
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 199,000 jobs in October, a little more than consensus estimates, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.
The unemployment rate fell to 3.7%.
The healthcare industry saw the most jobs added in November, growing by 77,000.
Commercial real estate-related industries saw growth as well, including leisure and hospitality, which added 40,000 jobs, almost all of which were in food services and drinking places. The leisure and hospitality sector has added an average of 51,000 jobs per month over the last 12 months.
Manufacturing added 28,000 jobs in November, mostly a reflection of the end of the automotive industry labor strike.
Retail trade employment fell by 38,000 jobs in November. The retail trade sector has shown little change in employment over the course of the year.
The construction industry showed little change in employment in November after adding 23,000 jobs in October.
Here's how economists and others reacted to the jobs report on X, formerly Twitter.
The November #jobsreport is solid today:
— Daniel Zhao (@DanielBZhao) December 8, 2023
-Payrolls +199k, up from 150k in Oct due to UAW/Hollywood strikes ending
-Unemp rate dropped back down to 3.7%
-Wage growth slows to 4.0% YoY
Boring is best here, with payrolls in line w/ expectations & unemp a touch better
1/
This is what a soft landing looks like. Total employment increases by 199K (RSM forecast of 187K) & a decline to 3.7% unemployment. I like full employment & so should you.
— Joseph Brusuelas (@joebrusuelas) December 8, 2023
Annualized rate of wage growth over last three months is just 3.4 percent -- certainly consistent with Fed's inflation target
— Dean Baker (@DeanBaker13) December 8, 2023
199,000 jobs added in November. Strong hiring in health care and gov.
— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) December 8, 2023
Healthcare +77,000
Gov't +49,000 (all from state & local)
Hospitality +40,000
Manufacturing +28,000 (due to UAW return)
Movie biz +17,000 (due to end of strike)
Social aid +16,000
Construction +2,000
Retail…
While everyone notes the 30k auto workers returning from strike in the November #JobsReport, I'm pretty happy to see 77k jobs added in healthcare & 49k jobs added in government. These sectors are *key* for a resilient economy since they are the jobs that make other jobs possible.
— Kate Bahn (@LipstickEcon) December 8, 2023
Good gains in state and local education, happy to see that since those sectors are still lagging pre-pandemic 1/
— Martha Gimbel (@marthagimbel) December 8, 2023
Three things are true:
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) December 8, 2023
1. Levels: Employment is high, and above pre-pandemic levels (and trends)
2. Changes: Employment is growing, and at rates historically considered strong
3. 2nd derivative: Employment growth is slowing. Better to call this "normalizing" given recent highs.
Today was clearly a strong jobs report. But keep in mind that what we are really seeing is a stabilizing labor market. Signs of slowing last month, rebounding a bit this month: this is what a strong but stable labor market looks like. https://t.co/6Q13Bur3wg
— Betsey Stevenson (@BetseyStevenson) December 8, 2023
Two years ago unemployment went below 4 percent, while core PCE inflation was around 5-6 percent.
— Mike Konczal (@mtkonczal) December 8, 2023
Core PCE is now below 3, and unemployment is still below 4.
That that could happens tells us a lot about what we went through; it also means we shouldn't sacrifice it. 6/6
