'Muted': Economists React To The October Jobs Report On X, Formerly Twitter
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 150,000 jobs in October, a little less than consensus estimates, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.
The unemployment rate moved up to 3.9%.
Worker strikes had an impact in the manufacturing sector, which lost 38,000 jobs in October, 33,000 of which were in motor vehicles and parts.
In commercial real estate-related sectors, construction employment grew by 23,000 jobs in October after averaging 18,000 jobs added over the prior 12 months.
The leisure and hospitality sector added 19,000 jobs in October. The industry had averaged job gains of 52,000 jobs per month over the previous 12 months.
Here's how economists and others reacted to the October jobs report on X, formerly Twitter.
Just In: The US economy added 150,000 jobs in October. It’s a slowdown from 297,000 in September but it was likely impacted by the UAW strike.
— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) November 3, 2023
Unemployment rate: 3.9% ->highest since Jan 2022
Wage increase: 4.1% (vs 3.7% inflation)
Basically across-the-board signs of labor market cooling. None of the numbers on their own terrible. But can't remember the last time in which every single figure was a bit worse than expected.
— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) November 3, 2023
Also negative revisions of 101K to the last two months.
I might have liked a somewhat stronger report, but if you had asked the Fed for a dream numbers, these are them. Employment growth is moderating to sustainable levels, labor supply remains robust, and wage growth is moderating to rates consistent with its inflation target.
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) November 3, 2023
The funny thing is if you add back the 33k auto jobs next month and give it any kind of multiplier at all we could get 250k+ in November. But we're going to live with the reality of the Oct data likely being soft for the next 27 days, an eternity in times like this.
— Conor Sen (@conorsen) November 3, 2023
Jobs report very solid. 150k jobs added, for an average of 204k added over last three months.
— Heidi Shierholz (@hshierholz) November 3, 2023
Historic UAW strikes likely reduced payrolls by around 30k in Oct, but with the successful end to those strikes, those workers will be back in the data next month.
Construction still adding jobs, employment up 23k, even residential is rising. Manufacturing lost 36k, but would have been roughly flat without the UAW strike
— Dean Baker (@DeanBaker13) November 3, 2023
Overall, softer than I expected, esp on the household side: the slow rise in unemp & the fall in prime-age e-pop/LFP are concerning. Declining wage growth & hours in the establishment survey are also cool. Not a lot of margin for error for the Fed to get to a soft landing.
— Daniel Zhao (@DanielBZhao) November 3, 2023
8/8
"The muted 150,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in October is another sign that the economy’s strength in the third quarter is likely to unwind in the fourth. With wage growth also continuing to slow, it is increasingly hard to imagine the Fed hiking interest rates any further." -…
— James Pethokoukis (@JimPethokoukis) November 3, 2023
Note on jobs data that financial markets are now rallying upon. Job gains would likely have crossed 240K, the unemployment rate would have held at 3.8% and wages would have likely held at the 0.3% absent the strikes.
— Diane Swonk (@DianeSwonk) November 3, 2023
Moral of the story. Be cautious of reading too much about the…
No, it’s not on the verge. https://t.co/fZIyd4aIyC
— Claudia Sahm (@Claudia_Sahm) November 3, 2023
