'You Can Stuff Your Recession Talk In A Sack, Mister': Economists React To July Jobs Report On Twitter
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 528,000 jobs in July, significantly higher than consensus expectations, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.
The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, reportedly the lowest unemployment rate in over half a century, and well below last July when it was at 5.4%.
Private sector employment is now 629,000 jobs higher than it was pre-pandemic in February 2020.
Growth continued in the leisure and hospitality sector, which added 96,000 jobs in July, including 74,000 jobs in food services and drinking places. Employment in leisure and hospitality, however, is still below its February 2020 level by 1.2 million jobs.
Construction employment also grew, adding 32,000 jobs in July, and is now 82,000 jobs higher than it was in February 2020.
The retail trade sector also saw a jump, adding 22,000 jobs in July. There are now 208,000 more retail trade jobs than there were in February 2020.
Here's how economists and others reacted to the July jobs report on Twitter:
Put that recession talk away, and change the subject. A vibecession ain't no recession:
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) August 5, 2022
July payrolls came in at a huge +528k, and unemployment is down to 3.5%.
A whap-bop-a-loopa-a-whap-bam-boo!
Employers don't think that we are in a recession.
— Betsey Stevenson (@BetseyStevenson) August 5, 2022
BEST RECESSION EVER!!! https://t.co/QakCDx5ZY5
— Michael Madowitz (@mikemadowitz) August 5, 2022
OH MY JOBS.... 528k on payrolls!!
— Kailey Leinz (@kaileyleinz) August 5, 2022
Yields surge, futures plunge. Wow.
strong, strong, strong
— Dr. Julia Coronado (@jc_econ) August 5, 2022
And average hourly earnings up 0.5%!
— Neil Irwin (@Neil_Irwin) August 5, 2022
This is very much a 75 bps rate hike in September kind of report.
52 straight days of falling gasoline prices while the economy is adding over half a million jobs doesn't seem like stagflation?
— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) August 5, 2022
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 528,000 in July, far exceeding consensus expectations of 250,000. The unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent. As of July, all of the 22 million jobs lost in the pandemic have been regained. Wow. pic.twitter.com/gauQScQIm2
— Odeta Kushi (@odetakushi) August 5, 2022
We now surpass the pre-pandemic jobs level by 13K jobs. While govt jobs lag Feb. 2020 levels, the (much-larger) private sector has made up the difference. pic.twitter.com/hcnm8w5HpW
— Steven Rattner (@SteveRattner) August 5, 2022
Job growth was very broad in July. Leisure and hospitality added 96k jobs, which we'd expect. But construction added 32k despite signs of a housing slowdown. Retail added 22k despite all the stories of excess inventories. Manufacturing +30k despite higher interest rates.
— Ben Casselman (@bencasselman) August 5, 2022
I love a hot jobs report, but the wage growth will have some people wringing their hands about ongoing inflation.
— Betsey Stevenson (@BetseyStevenson) August 5, 2022
We need to bring inflation down so workers can have real (not just nominal) wage growth. One way to do this is the tax measures in the inflation reduction act
"America is a jobs machine" used to be a good thing I am old enough to remember ...
— Arindrajit Dube (@arindube) August 5, 2022
Most industries added jobs in July, with job gains from sectors hard-hit by COVID like leisure & hospitality (+96k), education & health services (+122k) and from sectors currently slowing like retail (+21.6k), construction (+32k), information (+13k).#jobsreport 4/ pic.twitter.com/cgUAzaTjuD
— Daniel Zhao (@DanielBZhao) August 5, 2022
#JobsDay data for July show even stronger job growth for women than last month, 327,000, compared to 308k in June. Women again gained the majority of new payroll jobs, (61.9% of the 528k) and are within 0.1% of pre-COVID-19 payroll jobs. pic.twitter.com/GrH5h5GwL3
— IWPR (@IWPResearch) August 5, 2022
#jobsday unemployment rate for Hispanics falls to 3.9 percent, a record low
— Dean Baker (@DeanBaker13) August 5, 2022
"Recession – what recession?"
— David Gura (@davidgura) August 5, 2022
That's how Fitch's chief economist begins his latest note.
"The US economy is creating new jobs at an annual rate of 6 million," he continues. "That's three times faster than what we normally see historically in a good year."
Recession is now less of a worry. Inflation is more of a worry. The Fed will likely need to do more--although that will and should depend on all of the additional data we're getting before the next meeting (most importantly one more jobs report and two more CPI reports).
— Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) August 5, 2022
If your view last week was "The labor market is already sliding into an inevitable recession" and now it's "The labor market is so hot the Fed has to create a recession" that's a reflection of you, not the labor market.
— Conor Sen (@conorsen) August 5, 2022
the current state of affairs: pic.twitter.com/HDbqp8r4pu
— talmon joseph smith (@talmonsmith) August 5, 2022
"You can stuff your recession talk in a sack, mister."
— Neil Irwin (@Neil_Irwin) August 5, 2022
Maybe? Something there?
I wish every day was jobs day
— Adam Ozimek (@ModeledBehavior) August 5, 2022
