‘Lookin' Real Good’: Economists React To February Jobs Report On X

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 jobs in February, higher than consensus estimates and above the average monthly gain of 230,000 jobs over the previous 12 months, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

The unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 3.9%.

December and January payroll employment numbers were revised down by a combined 167,000 jobs.

Healthcare had the most job gains in February, adding 67,000 positions. Job growth in the healthcare industry has averaged 58,000 jobs per month over the past 12 months.

Construction employment continued its upward trend in February, adding 23,000 jobs. The construction industry has added an average of 18,000 jobs per month over the last year.

February also saw 42,000 jobs added at food services and drinking places. Employment in this sector had changed little over the previous three months.

Here's how economists and others reacted to the jobs report on X, formerly Twitter:

Feb #jobsreport is a mixed bag:
-Jobs growth beats again at 275k
-Unemp rises to 3.9%
-Avg hrly earnings cools to 4.3%

The hot Jan report seems more like a fluke in hindsight as Feb features strong jobs growth but also rising unemp.

1/
— Daniel Zhao (@DanielBZhao) March 8, 2024

Another month, another good report on the job market. Abstracting from the vagaries of the monthly data, the economy is creating between 200-250k jobs a month, unemployment is hovering just below 4%, and wage growth is just over 4%. Not too hot, not too cold. Just right.
— Mark Zandi (@Markzandi) March 8, 2024

A platonic job report for data cherrypickers
— Guy Berger (@EconBerger) March 8, 2024

Strong hiring in February (+275,000 jobs added) especially in healthcare and gov't.

Healthcare +67,000 (+12k in public educ)
Gov't +52,000
Restaurants +42,000
Social aid +24,000
Construction +23,000
Retail +19,000
Couriers +17,000
Professional Biz +9,000

Manufacturing -4,000
— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) March 8, 2024

US Feb Jobs Report: composition of job gains was broad based which should put an end to the trope hiring has been all government and healthcare. The diffusion index at 62.8% implies that hiring was broad based and up from 57.4% one year ago.
— Joseph Brusuelas (@joebrusuelas) March 8, 2024

Nominal wage growth continues to moderate. Private sector wage growth rose by a modest 1.8% over the month, annualized. The three-month change came in at 4.0%, annualized, consistent with inflation and productivity growth.

Fed take note: this is not an overheating labor market.
— Elise Gould (@eliselgould) March 8, 2024

Wage growth still seems to be most rapid at the bottom, average hourly wage for production and non-supervisory workers in hotels and restaurants is up 5.6 percent YOY
— Dean Baker (@DeanBaker13) March 8, 2024

Time for the Fed to lower interest rates. https://t.co/8r1fq9L5Gy
— Eileen Appelbaum (@EileenAppelbaum) March 8, 2024

*FED SWAPS FULLY PRICE IN QUARTER-POINT RATE CUT IN JUNE
— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) March 8, 2024

The latest jobs report "will sideline more those who suddenly decided we were going to no cuts, or even get a hike:" @elerianm on @bsurveillance “The baseline remains two to three cuts this year starting in June. And the data’s consistent with that.” https://t.co/e4awV8TU2H
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) March 8, 2024

Lookin' real good.

3-month averages.
- Payrolls: 265,000
- Unemployment: 3.76%

Sahm rule in February: 0.26 percentage point
(Well below 0.50 trigger.) https://t.co/Vke4lim1oa
— Claudia Sahm (@Claudia_Sahm) March 8, 2024