Despite grim expert forecasts, a CBRE report says the global economic outlook is generally positive. However record-low oil prices and interest rate uncertainty could spell trouble in some developing countries.
In CBRE’s 2016 Global Real Estate Market Outlook, the commercial real estate giant expects “moderate economic growth, low inflation, low interest rates, and bouts of pessimism,” things typical of the global economy over the past few years.
Consumer spending will drive the economy, getting a boost from low—or even negative—interest rates, along with cheap energy and commodities.
Risks for global output are low growth, currency weakness and rising US interest rates, forewarning a potential crisis for emerging markets that can't pay back their dollar-dominated debts.
CBRE points to two significant political events to watch as well—the US presidential race and the UK’s vote on EU membership, both of which could put a short-term stop on investment spending in the two countries.
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