Commercial real estate entered 2026 expecting a recovery. Instead, the industry is now navigating a far more complicated reality shaped in part by the conflict with Iran.

Rising geopolitical tension has pushed oil prices higher, adding new pressure to inflation and keeping interest rates elevated, even as roughly $1.2T in real estate loans come due by 2027.

Much of that debt was originated in a dramatically different rate environment, raising fresh questions about how much capital will be available — and at what cost — as borrowers look to refinance.

The risks are growing more visible, Peachtree Group CEO Greg Friedman said on this week’s episode.

“Lending availability to commercial real estate could easily freeze up very quickly,” Friedman said. “And that is a risk in the face of this unprecedented amount of loan maturities.”

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First Draft Live returns for Season 2, bringing with it a continued commitment to compelling conversations with commercial real estate’s leading voices. Inspired by our daily newsletter, The First Draft, Bisnow’s Editor-in-Chief / Chief Content Officer Mark Bonner takes viewers behind the scenes on what’s shaping everything from capital trends and policy changes to sector-specific activity, in discussion with the people making it happen.

We’ve hosted some of the industry’s top voices — and there’s more to come. Bring your questions, join the conversation, or catch the replay within 24 hours if you can’t attend live. Past episodes can be found here.

Interested in speaking? Contact our Vice President of Production, Elizabeth Baker, at liz.baker@bisnow.com.