More than $875B in commercial and multifamily loans come due this year, and for the first time since the wall started building, the pile is actually shrinking instead of growing. Fewer extensions are getting granted, which means more owners are finally being forced to answer the question they've been dodging since rates started climbing: sell or hand back the keys?

Vik Uppal has built a business around that question. The founder and CEO of Mavik Capital Management just closed a $1B fund, VS3, aimed squarely at the deals nobody else wants, the ones stuck between an owner who can't refinance and a lender who doesn't want to foreclose. It's the stuck middle of the maturity wall, the part that never makes headlines until someone like Uppal shows up with a checkbook. He's also steering clear of the trade everyone else is chasing, passing on AI-adjacent assets because he thinks the valuations don't hold up.

Uppal joins First Draft Live this week to walk through where the real distress is hiding beneath the default numbers, why sellers still haven't blinked on price and what he's seeing that the rest of the market isn't.

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First Draft Live returns for Season 2, bringing with it a continued commitment to compelling conversations with commercial real estate’s leading voices. Inspired by our daily newsletter, The First Draft, Bisnow’s Editor-in-Chief / Chief Content Officer Mark Bonner takes viewers behind the scenes on what’s shaping everything from capital trends and policy changes to sector-specific activity, in discussion with the people making it happen.

We’ve hosted some of the industry’s top voices — and there’s more to come. Bring your questions, join the conversation, or catch the replay within 24 hours if you can’t attend live. Past episodes can be found here.

Interested in speaking? Contact our Vice President of Production, Elizabeth Baker, at liz.baker@bisnow.com.