Trump's Victory Isn't Shaking Cautious Investor Market

Bisnow: Ben Mazzara

In the wake of Donald Trump’s election victory, many were concerned about the potential fallout to the investments market. Would the President-elect scare off already skittish and conservative investors?

Not exactly, panelists of Bisnow’s 2016 BOLD East event said. Investors are indeed more cautious than ever, but that means they won’t need to change up their strategies.

Blackstone real estate debt strategies senior managing director Mike Nash (second from right) says not much has changed in the market with the decision. The cycle may be a bit longer, the likely returns may be a big lower than what an Excel spreadsheet predicts and buildings might take longer to lease, but leverage, interest rates and other market factors are so low that most bumps in the road can be easily weathered.

The biggest trends to watch, Mike and Rubenstein Partners founder David Rubenstein (far right) said, would be the potential development boom for pharmaceutical companies if Obamacare’s repealed, the Fed’s December decision, the potential elimination of Dodd-Frank and even a substantial tax reform.

All of these trends, Mike says, could be positive changes for the industry, which is already seen as an attractive environment for investors, and could be more so, as economic volatility hurts other countries more than us.

But it’s simply too early to tell, MetLife Real Estate Investors director Ashleigh Simpson (center, to the left of SL Green's Isaac Zion) says, and, while he’s waiting to see how Trump’s policy changes affect job growth and office demand, he says MetLife's not changing its business strategy of providing debt and financing in Class-B office recapitalizations, upsizing financing and large mortgages. Mike says Blackstone is also not straying from its love for coastal markets, avoidance of regional malls, or investment in food and beverage.

Nothing changes people’s desire to eat,” he said.

The coastal focus might be the best way to go, David says, since financing is harder to acquire in the heartland. Ashleigh says markets booming with tech like Pittsburgh and NYC are where MetLife is focusing.

Bisnow: Ben Mazzara

Empire State Realty Trust CEO Tony Malkin (right with moderator and Hogan Lovells partner Mark Eagan)  will continue to “deal with the hand I’m dealt.”

Coming from a private equity background, Tony says he’s not afraid to dilute his interest, be incredibly selective with his tenants (tech tenants make up only 8% of ESRT’s portfolio) and strives to keep ESRT’s leverage low.

During its partnership with the Qatari Investment Authority, for example, ESRT sold 9.9% in new shares to increase the cash on its balance sheet. Even the choice of partner is based on this low-leverage mindset, as Tony expressed his reluctance to deal with domestic investors who he finds “too locked-in and accustomed to their structures, advisers and programs."

Continue reading this story with a free account

Log in or register
Sign up for more articles like this
Subscribe to Bisnow's New York Newsletters
Related Stories

NYC Lawmakers Consider Mandating Lease Extensions For Retailers

NYC Pushes To Use Opportunity Zone 2.0 For Mamdani's Housing Goals

Where Capital Meets Opportunity: Navigating The Next Wave Of CRE Financing At Bisnow’s Event On Sept. 30

Discussing Strategic Capital Stack Structuring At Bisnow's Sept. 30 National Finance Event

Bally's Lines Up $560M Loan For Bronx Casino: The N.Y. Deal Sheet

Data Center Spills 5,000 Gallons Of Fuel Into New Jersey River

Historic Brooklyn Hotel To Be Turned Into Ritz-Carlton-Branded Condos

Taconic Partners Sheds Another NYC Life Sciences Property

Oxford Properties' U.S. Investment Head On Why It's Buying Office Again — And Where

25 Years After 9/11, Lower Manhattan Is Finally Firing On All Cylinders

Tishman Speyer Seeks $92M Tax Break For Next Hudson Yards Office Tower

SL Green Selling SoHo Building For $226M