CBRE ON 2Q; 280 PARK; ULI

All these 2Q reviews make us nostalgic; (we were so young, so naive three months ago): On Wednesday, we stopped by CB Richard Ellis' quarterly breakfast at its MetLife Building offices. EVPs Peter Turchin and Paul Myers confirmed what we've been hearing: June was the best month for leasing velocity in the past year as tenants finally began to make decisions.
Renewals accounted for 26% of the leasing activity. While Peter, as a landlord rep, says the market's soft, tenant rep Paul says it's a best buy. Office rents continued to decline, dropping $1.29 PSF from May to June, while availability rates slightly increased. But transactions benefit both sides, establishing price points. Watch for the bottom when: unemployment rates drop, with availability following; market rents trade more narrowly; tenants withdraw sublease space and reoccupy previously vacated space; and, tenants are more prepared to lock in rates.
Bruce Surry (right, who attended the breakfast along with Sheldon Cohen, Travis Yuengst, and Matt Van Buren), says there's a common theme to what he's hearing: real estate's busier at all levels. There's been an increase in space tours and paper trading, which reflects proposals being worked on. He's also beginning to hear the magical word, expansion. Despite the still-overriding concern of the elusive bottom, he adds that he's encouraged.

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