One of Dallas-Fort Worth’s most active land brokers believes the North Texas market is entering a transitional phase that will see sales volume cool off considerably.
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After blazing as hot as any market he’s seen in the last five years, Rex Real Estate owner Rex Glendenning expects the North Texas market to cool off considerably because of the gap between what land sellers want and what buyers are willing to pay right now. He said it will likely take about 18 months to level the playing field before sales volume picks back up.
"We always get out … over our skis a little too far, and we put a little bit too many lots on the ground,” Glendenning said during Bisnow's Texas Residential Summit on Tuesday at Southfork Ranch in Parker. “We've done it before, and we did it again."
The price of rural land in Northeast Texas was down nearly 6% year-over-year, according to the Fall 2026 North Texas Land Price Report from The Agency Dallas. The price of land in West Texas was up more than 14% during the same time span, and the statewide price increased by more than 3%.
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One of the biggest developers of residential lots in North Texas is Centurion American Development Group, which has massive projects underway in Denison, Anna, Fort Worth and Gunter. Centurion American President Mehrdad Moayedi agreed that developers face many headwinds, but he sees the impending downturn as an opportunity to pursue projects that were previously too costly.
Despite the pullback in residential development, DFW is still one of the strongest markets for Ross Perot Jr.’s Hillwood.
The firm’s residential development pipeline peaked in 2022 with 60,000 starts, Hillwood Communities President Fred Balda said. For 2026, Hillwood is on pace for around 38,000 starts and expects to do around 35,000 next year.
"When you look back at 2019, that's about the same level of activity that we had then, and that was a good year," Balda said. "So keep that in perspective."
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Craig International CEO David Craig said he’s been in the game long enough to have seen these slower cycles before. While he knows the transitional phase will eventually pass, Craig also preached the importance of being flexible.
Instead of focusing on strictly residential projects, Craig International has had success with a number of mixed-use projects and master-planned communities that offer that flexibility.
Craig International is the driving force behind the $6B Preston Harbor project in Denison that will include a Margaritaville Resort Hotel, retail shops, restaurants and a marina on Lake Texoma in addition to thousands of homes. The firm also recently sold the nearly 37K SF District 121 restaurant and retail property at the northeast corner of State Highway 121 and Alma Road in McKinney after just four years.
Master-planned communities and mixed-use projects have been successful in DFW because of the exorbitant population growth the region continues to experience and the high number of corporate relocations to North Texas.
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As DFW continues to develop as a national financial hub and more companies move to the area, Craig said he sees that as an opportunity.
“All those people are going to want, if they don't already live here … to buy a house,” Craig said.
Landowners also have an opportunity to help make deals happen over the next few years by providing seller financing, Glendenning said. With elevated interest rates and banks being tougher to deal with, those willing to offer a two- to three-year seller-financing note at 5% interest or less will make things a lot easier for developers and land buyers.
While relationships are the heartbeat of the commercial real estate world during every phase of the market, Glendenning said they're even more important when things tighten.
"You have to do what you say you're going to do, and deliver what you say you're going to deliver as a broker or developer," he said.
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