'Wow HUUGE': Economists React To October Jobs Report On Twitter
The U.S. economy topped expectations and added 531,000 jobs in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. The unemployment rate fell to 4.6%, a significant drop from January when the unemployment rate was 6.3%.
Revisions also added 235,000 jobs to the previous two months' job reports. Nonfarm payroll employment is now averaging 582,000 additional jobs per month in 2021.
The leisure and hospitality sector led all sectors for job growth in October, adding 164,000 jobs. Manufacturing, as well as transportation and warehousing, also showed strong job gains, adding 60,000 jobs and 54,000 jobs, respectively.
The construction industry added 44,000 jobs in October after adding 30,000 jobs in September. The construction industry now has 150,000 fewer jobs than it did in February 2020.
Retail trade also improved, adding 35,000 jobs in October. There are now 140,000 fewer retail trade jobs than there were in February 2020.
Here is how economists and others reacted to the October jobs report.
October Employment Report: 531 Thousand Jobs, 4.6% Unemployment Rate https://t.co/WXLdClfZyf
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) November 5, 2021
This was above consensus expectations, and August and September were revised up by 235,000 combined. pic.twitter.com/KE2aFHL35e
Strong job gains across the board in October:
— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) November 5, 2021
Restaurants +119,000
Biz +100,000 (41% were temp jobs)
Manufacturing +60,000
Warehouses +54,000
Construction +44,000
Healthcare +37,000 (inc. +16k in home health)
Retail +35,000
Dryclean +28,000
Hotels +23,000
Fin services +21,000
Pretty good job growth across industries, continued to be led by leisure and hospitality, but not bad elsewhere.
— Kate Bahn (@LipstickEcon) November 5, 2021
The one exception is state and local education, which continues to decline as its usual seasonal hiring and layoff patterns are out of whack. #JobsReport
Wow HUUGE positive revisions to August and September. Combined +235k jobs for the two months.
— Neil Irwin (@Neil_Irwin) November 5, 2021
If you don't revise your views about the state of the recovery after this jobs report, you're not really evidence-based.
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) November 5, 2021
The Fall hiccup is now at best a Fall deep breath.
Want a sign that the economy is edging back toward normal? The share of people working from home because of Covid fell to a pandemic low of 11.6% in October. Resumed its decline after stalling out during the Delta wave. pic.twitter.com/Pv4U3LQIcP
— Ben Casselman (@bencasselman) November 5, 2021
Employment in higher-wage is almost back at pre-pandemic levels, but lower-wage industries are still down 5.5% pic.twitter.com/bgM5pIwG2x
— Nick Bunker (@nick_bunker) November 5, 2021
Job gains are:
— Alan Cole (@AlanMCole) November 5, 2021
- way better than the lame 2010s recovery
- slower than I thought they would be, conditional on our [much better than the 2010s] policy
- slow enough that we're going to continue to feel like something's amiss, as consumers, as we visit short-staffed businesses
The labor market is now back to where it was in early 2017, while the Fed remains much more accommodating than it was back then. This recovery has proceeded far faster than the Great Recession, helped by a much more aggressive policy response.
— Adam Ozimek (@ModeledBehavior) November 5, 2021
Why was the October jobs report so strong?
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) November 5, 2021
It's always hard to interpret any single monthly figure, but it's worth noting that this was a period over which covid cases were falling dramatically.
Bad news: That decline has stalled...
Good news: 5-11's can now get vaccinated... pic.twitter.com/G3fgLww1OK
The big drop in the unemployment rate was among less educated workers
— Betsey Stevenson (@BetseyStevenson) November 5, 2021
Less then high school falls .5
High school falls .4
Some college falls .1
College falls .1
Wow, look at what’s happening to wages in leisure and hospitality, thanks to rebound in demand and shortage of workers. pic.twitter.com/ZK8rEXvYyk
— Steven Rattner (@SteveRattner) November 5, 2021
My biggest concern in this report is the gap in state & local govt jobs. S&L govts lost 70,000 jobs in Oct on a seasonally adj basis, and are down 928,000 since Feb ‘20—most of that, 574,000, in education. It’s critical that S&L govts use their ARP funds to refill those jobs. 5/
— Heidi Shierholz (@hshierholz) November 5, 2021
Labor supply problems in 3 key sectors.
— Constance L Hunter (@ConstanceHunter) November 5, 2021
Nursing: 406k fewer workers
Child Care:101K fewer workers
Leisure and Hospitality:1.3 million fewer workers
Nurses are leaving the profession. Child care workers create other labor market frictions. Leisure and Hospitality trending ⬆️ pic.twitter.com/AXYAwas392
We are still millions of jobs below pre-pandemic levels, and there are millions of job openings; altogether the ingredients for even stronger growth are in place.
— Adam Ozimek (@ModeledBehavior) November 5, 2021
In sum:
— Aaron Sojourner (@aaronsojourner) November 5, 2021
Labor market recovery stronger over last 3 months than we had understood,
A long way to go to a fully-healthy, full-employment labor market. Easy gains gone.
Pandemic accelerated older Americans exit to sidelines. Better jobs & pub health necessary to pull people back.
