Welcome To Halftime: 40 CRE Execs Talk Tariffs, Delays — And A Year That Hasn't Gone To Plan
Well, that was one hell of a first half.
Back in January, the pregame talk echoed with bravado. Fifty-six industry titans had just told us that once the U.S. presidential election dust settled, interest rates would drift lower, capital would unfreeze and 2025 would be the year to thrive.
Six months, 166 executive orders, a flurry of ever-changing tariffs, frozen interest rates and one big, beautiful bill later, the mood has clearly shifted. Everyone knows who to thank — or blame.
The tariff roller coaster and ensuing economic uncertainty have replaced election anxiety as the nagging headline, interest-rate cuts are still a mirage, and the bid-ask gap has barely blinked.
In boardrooms from Newport Beach to London, the halftime mood board is less touchdown dance and more film-study grind: Commercial real estate is rewriting budgets, renegotiating leases, lengthening underwriting and waiting — and waiting some more — for price discovery.
Yet the 40 real estate C-suite executives in this halftime report say they are persisting by focusing on adaptability.
Industrial owners are trading leverage for triple-net deals, multifamily lenders are shifting toward CRE credit, and retail brokers are prepping Plan C before Plan A even lands. Some players are still in hibernation, while others are pouncing on dislocation. “Flexibility” shows up in nearly every response.
Three themes jump off the page.
First, higher-for-longer is no longer a forecast — it’s the ambient weather, and strategies have normalized around it. Second, the distress wave has been deferred and nearly everyone mistimed when assets would hit the market. And third, tenant demand is bifurcating, proving that location and product quality still outrank macro noise.
In January, we asked how our leaders would win the year. Today, we ask how they will finish it.
Welcome to halftime.
— Mark F. Bonner, Editor-in-Chief
Responses have been lightly edited for length and clarity.
Tariffs keep whipsawing. Are you fast-tracking deals, hitting pause or rewriting budgets to stay ahead of the chaos?
We continue to be strategic and disciplined in our equity investing, leaning harder into the credit trade by doing direct lending across all CRE assets or buying loans from banks that need to deleverage their exposure to CRE, especially those that are subperforming or nonperforming.
We’re six months into 2025. Has your playbook changed, and if so, what’s the new game plan?
The game plan has remained the same, but I anticipate more attractive buying opportunities on the equity side later this year or in early 2026.
What’s one assumption you had in January that hasn’t held up?
I had expected stronger business and consumer sentiment under the new administration, especially given its early focus on reducing regulation and creating a more favorable tax environment. Unfortunately, that momentum has been lost amid growing distractions from tariffs to expanding geopolitical challenges.
SECTOR: Capital Markets
CITY: National
YEARS IN CRE: 25
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Tariffs keep whipsawing. Are you fast-tracking deals, hitting pause or rewriting budgets to stay ahead of the chaos?
We are seeing a little bit of each, depending on the client and the geography: Some wish to accelerate before the impacts of tariffs, some are “hitting the pause button” to try and wait out the flip flops, and some are strategically repricing and risk-managing the costs associated with acquiring, developing and operating property.
We’re six months into 2025. Has your playbook changed, and if so, what’s the new game plan?
No new game plan. Real estate is cyclical and it is turning positive for the medium and long term. The short-term noise will work its way out of the system and allow for the recovery that starts in 2025 and accelerates in 2026.
What’s one assumption you had in January that hasn’t held up?
We had expected tariffs to come and go, inflation to level off and interest rates to come down. We are witnessing more geopolitical, political and central monetary policy concerns than expected.
SECTOR: Advisory
CITY: International
YEARS IN CRE: 35
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Tariffs keep whipsawing. Are you fast-tracking deals, hitting pause or rewriting budgets to stay ahead of the chaos?
We’re not hitting pause — we’re staying focused on long-term fundamentals and the operational strength of real estate. While tariff volatility adds noise, its direct impact on European markets remains secondary. We continue to underwrite with discipline, recognising that well-located, high-quality assets will outperform regardless of short-term geopolitical shifts
We’re six months into 2025. Has your playbook changed, and if so, what’s the new game plan?
While the market remains uncertain, our approach as long-term investors hasn’t changed. Logistics and residential remain core convictions, but we’re also continuing to see selective opportunities in offices and retail. It’s about staying disciplined — particularly where assets offer repositioning potential or strong income streams.
What’s one assumption you had in January that hasn’t held up?
We anticipated a stronger rebound in investment activity by now, but geopolitical uncertainty — especially from the U.S. — has delayed that momentum. That said, we see Europe, and particularly the UK, emerging as a relative safe haven. The fundamentals are improving, and we expect confidence to return in the second half of the year.
SECTOR: Investment
CITY: London
YEARS IN CRE: 23
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Tariffs keep whipsawing. Are you fast-tracking deals, hitting pause or rewriting budgets to stay ahead of the chaos?
I’m seeing tenants becoming very cautious. Even if tariffs don’t directly impact them, they’re affecting their clients — and that ripple effect, combined with general uncertainty, is causing many companies to hit pause. Chaos in the broader economy creates hesitation across the board. In my market, around 70% of households have at least one federal employee. That means even local business owners, who might not be directly impacted by federal policy, are feeling the pressure at home, which makes them even more hesitant to make long-term commitments.
We’re six months into 2025. Has your playbook changed, and if so, what’s the new game plan?
Our strategy is to stick to fundamentals — staying focused, working the basics and not getting swept up in the noise. In a time of disruption, consistency and persistence matter more than ever.
What’s one assumption you had in January that hasn’t held up?
Meaningful, measured change — but instead we’ve seen abrupt, slash-and-burn tactics that have created widespread uncertainty. I didn’t think things would become this turbulent this quickly.
SECTOR: Office
CITY: Columbia, Maryland
YEARS IN CRE: 35
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Tariffs keep whipsawing. Are you fast-tracking deals, hitting pause or rewriting budgets to stay ahead of the chaos?
Depends on the industry. Apparel groups are pausing, but law and financial firms remain active — base floors in Midtown [New York] are leasing above $100 per SF. One Park Avenue building increased rents for the same space from $130 to $150 per SF in just months. Deals are taking longer, but landlords aren’t budging. Tech is also back, especially AI-focused ventures. Construction budgets now include a line item for tariffs, but most are left blank until pricing becomes clearer closer to project kickoff.
We’re six months into 2025. Has your playbook changed, and if so, what’s the new game plan?
Flexibility used to be about the uncertainty around remote/hybrid work. Now it’s about scaling smartly. Firms are projecting growth but are unsure of the timing. And given the increased construction costs and limited supply, they’re highly focused on known expansion, shared amenity spaces and termination/contraction if they have to pivot to another location that can accommodate growth. It’s no longer reactive, it’s strategic. Also, real estate continues to be viewed more and more as a talent tool, helping to attract and retain the best people.
What’s one assumption you had in January that hasn’t held up?
That Trump 2.0 would mirror Trump 1.0.
SECTOR: Brokerage
CITY: New York City
YEARS IN CRE: 20
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Tariffs keep whipsawing. Are you fast-tracking deals, hitting pause or rewriting budgets to stay ahead of the chaos?
The ongoing tariff fluctuations haven’t materially impacted our decision-making. Our investment strategy is driven by long-term fundamentals rather than short-term market noise.
We’re six months into 2025. Has your playbook changed, and if so, what’s the new game plan?
The weak tenant demand we experienced in 2024 has persisted through the first half of 2025. In response, we’ve had to get more creative in lease negotiations — accepting shorter lease terms, offering increased free rent and finding other deal structures that align with current tenant expectations. Flexibility has become critical as we work to preserve occupancy and position our assets for long-term stability.
What’s one assumption you had in January that hasn’t held up?
“Thrive in 2025” was a popular phrase among brokerage houses in late 2024, but so far the reality has fallen short. We’ve yet to see a meaningful pickup in tenant activity, and demand remains soft across most sectors. While we’re optimistic for a rebound, we’re approaching the balance of the year with cautious pragmatism — focused on preserving occupancy, maintaining flexibility in lease structuring and staying disciplined in our underwriting.
SECTOR: Industrial
CITY: Newport Beach, California
YEARS IN CRE: 12
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Tariffs keep whipsawing. Are you fast-tracking deals, hitting pause or rewriting budgets to stay ahead of the chaos?
The tariffs had minimal effect, as we had our construction contract [on a conversion of a San Antonio office tower into apartments] done late last year. Our only concern now is re-delivery of some electrical gear. [We have] nothing else working at this time, in large part because nothing pencils, i.e., unleveraged return is less than cost of debt.
What’s one assumption you had in January that hasn’t held up?
That more distressed assets would hit the market.
SECTOR: Adaptive Reuse
CITY: San Antonio
YEARS IN CRE: 45
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Tariffs keep whipsawing. Are you fast-tracking deals, hitting pause or rewriting budgets to stay ahead of the chaos?
Just going with the flow. Leasing deals are still on track but taking longer than usual. New acquisitions are challenging based on interest rate fluctuations, wide lender spreads, tenant concerns and potential tariff impacts. Overall occupancy is strong, rent collections are good and generally, tenants sales volumes are holding up.
We’re six months into 2025. Has your playbook changed, and if so, what’s the new game plan?
No change. Cautious coming into 2025 and hopeful for acquisition opportunities. Choppy waters have made it challenging in the first half. Optimistic that the second half provides interesting opportunities and more favorable interest rates and lender spreads.
What’s one assumption you had in January that hasn’t held up?
Looked like interest rates would be more favorable as the year progressed, but so far just more volatility.
SECTOR: Retail
CITY: Los Angeles
YEARS IN CRE: 40-plus
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Tariffs keep whipsawing. Are you fast-tracking deals, hitting pause or rewriting budgets to stay ahead of the chaos?
Tariff volatility is certainly disruptive, but our response depends on the specific deal, market conditions and investment stage. If we’re already committed to a project and funds have been allocated, we may revise the budget to account for elevated costs. However, we don’t fast-track deals out of panic. Instead, we take a measured, pragmatic approach, prioritizing discipline.
What’s one assumption you had in January that hasn’t held up?
We expected more signs of recovery by now — including lower interest rates, increased transactions and some regulatory relief. Instead, ongoing eviction backlogs and expense inflation have contributed to uncertainty. The slowdown in new apartment supply has firmed rents and occupancy up a little, although we project more to come. We started the year thinking things would be clearer by now, but the reality proves no one has a very good crystal ball.
SECTOR: Multifamily
CITY: Los Angeles
YEARS IN CRE: 40
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Tariffs keep whipsawing. Are you fast-tracking deals, hitting pause or rewriting budgets to stay ahead of the chaos?
The changing tariff landscape and related uncertainty has delayed deal closings as developers have taken a wait-and-see approach. Projects have been paused because increased tariffs would greatly increase construction budgets and impact project returns. Much of the tariff discussions seem to be for negotiating leverage, which many believe will abate in the near future, so many developers are sitting tight.
We’re six months into 2025. Has your playbook changed, and if so, what’s the new game plan?
We expected 2025 to be another banner year based on the backlog of projects and anticipation of a lower interest rate and inflation rate environment. At this point, we are focusing on expanding our business relationships to better position our firm when projects begin moving forward.
What’s one assumption you had in January that hasn’t held up?
The biggest assumption was that there would be some easing of interest rates by the Fed, which would allow projects to move forward.
SECTORS: Finance, Capital Markets
CITY: Dallas-Fort Worth
YEARS IN CRE: 35
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Tariffs keep whipsawing. Are you fast-tracking deals, hitting pause or rewriting budgets to stay ahead of the chaos?
As an owner, it is a big issue and causing us to rethink capex on new acquisitions and alter business plans on existing assets. One of the biggest conversations is negotiating with contractors and architects to cap both cost liability and delays in procuring materials. No perfect science here, so you just try to do the best you can.
We’re six months into 2025. Has your playbook changed, and if so, what’s the new game plan?
The playbook is in the garbage can after [the New York mayoral] primary. I’m not sure how anyone can consider investing in New York City until we understand what our leadership will be. Hopefully [Zohran] Mamdani will lose and we can have confidence that we can do business in NYC. I assumed that given the lack of availability in high-end buildings, we would see a huge jump in renewals. YTD we are 60-40 renewals vs. relocations for tenants over 60K SF. I thought it would be at least 75% renewals — there is no space out there!
What’s one assumption you had in January that hasn’t held up?
I assumed that by this point in the year, we would’ve seen a lot more nonperforming loan sales backed by B and C office. Everyone is still kicking the can. I thought by now lenders would’ve had enough, but they’re still being patient.
SECTOR: Owner, Tenant Representation
CITY: New York City
YEARS IN CRE: 19
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Tariffs keep whipsawing. Are you fast-tracking deals, hitting pause or rewriting budgets to stay ahead of the chaos?
We’re closely monitoring the situation, but so far, tariffs have not significantly impacted our timelines or pricing strategies. Our focus remains on executing strategic condo buyouts, and we expect to close major deals in the coming days totaling approximately $300M.
We’re six months into 2025. Has your playbook changed, and if so, what’s the new game plan?
The market started the year with volatility, but we’re seeing renewed confidence from major investors. Our approach is to stay agile, capitalize on buyout opportunities and position ourselves for what we believe will be a strong 2026.
What’s one assumption you had in January that hasn’t held up?
We had anticipated a steadier start to the year, but the market experienced more ups and downs than we had expected. However, investor interest has rebounded more quickly than we projected.
SECTORS: Condominiums, Mixed-Use, Multifamily
CITY: South Florida
YEARS IN CRE: 25
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Tariffs keep whipsawing. Are you fast-tracking deals, hitting pause or rewriting budgets to stay ahead of the chaos?
We are currently allocating primarily to lightly transitional CRE that requires only small improvement budgets so that cost swings are minimal to the overall expense or improvement budget of the property. We are also focusing on NNN industrial.
We’re six months into 2025. Has your playbook changed, and if so, what’s the new game plan?
As construction costs have continued to climb and construction workplace is constrained, further driving expenses up, we have pivoted to allocating more of our lending capacity to CRE transactions than multifamily, whereas for the prior year it was the opposite.
What’s one assumption you had in January that hasn’t held up?
At the start of the year, we thought that interest rates would start to drop sooner than they have, but I think we were all in that boat. Now that we are staying in this seemingly never-ending higher environment, we believe there will be a lot of opportunity to buy properties at a huge discount to replacement value. We believe we are approaching a once-in-a-generation timing that will provide both debt and equity opportunities.
SECTOR: Lending
CITY: Miami
YEARS IN CRE: 19
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Tariffs keep whipsawing. Are you fast-tracking deals, hitting pause or rewriting budgets to stay ahead of the chaos?
Tariffs have not impacted demand for space. In our opinion, most of the negative prognostications about tariffs are coming from people who didn’t want Trump elected and now are hoping to be proven right.
We’re six months into 2025. Has your playbook changed, and if so, what’s the new game plan?
The game plan is the same. Do conservative acquisitions and select development. Focus on leasing and getting deals ready to sell. Start selling when institutional core equity starts buying.
What’s one assumption you had in January that hasn’t held up?
We thought that with the election over and a supposedly business-friendly candidate in the White House, equity investors would return to the market and the investment market would start to unlock. That has not happened … yet.
SECTORS: Brokerage, Development
CITY: Atlanta
YEARS IN CRE: 40
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Tariffs keep whipsawing. Are you fast-tracking deals, hitting pause or rewriting budgets to stay ahead of the chaos?
I've talked to our brokers statewide, and they say they're having a stronger-than-expected summer, but deals can take longer to close as tenants consider economic uncertainties. A few have had deals canceled right at the finish line due to potential tariffs, but that often relates to higher finish-out costs. We're staying current with all of the changes and making sure we talk things through with our clients, but we're not seeing any real disruption in tenant demand or leasing activity.
We’re six months into 2025. Has your playbook changed, and if so, what’s the new game plan?
The playbook hasn’t really changed, though we’re adjusting to higher interest rates and higher costs. We continue to monitor costs and what we spend on operations, but that is always part of operating the company. Plus, we're in Texas, and there's nation-leading population and job growth, as well as strong GDP growth, and all of those support our current business model.
What’s one assumption you had in January that hasn’t held up?
We expected the inflation rate at the beginning of the year, which rose to 3%, to result in a delay in interest rate cuts to later in the year. Now with inflation at 2.4%, we're optimistic for cuts sooner than later.
SECTOR: Retail
CITY: Dallas-Fort Worth
YEARS IN CRE: 33
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Tariffs keep whipsawing. Are you fast-tracking deals, hitting pause or rewriting budgets to stay ahead of the chaos?
The actual tariffs are likely an under-10% line item in a total budget. That said, the impact of tariffs could be broader in the macroeconomy, and to me, that will impact values.
We’re six months into 2025. Has your playbook changed, and if so, what’s the new game plan?
Predicating decisions on abnormally low interest rates was never realistic. Deals and transactions need to work at normalized rates. Underwriting a deal to a future significantly lower-rate environment has to be in the rearview.
What’s one assumption you had in January that hasn’t held up?
That office would be in trouble forever and that New York City would not be facing the prospects of socialist mayoral administration.
SECTOR: Multifamily
CITY: New York City
YEARS IN CRE: 22
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What’s one assumption you had in January that hasn’t held up?
There was a real fear that the notion of the shrinkage of the government would have demonstrably negative effects. Yes, it has translated to some federal workers losing their jobs. Yes, it has translated to some related private sector tenants losing their jobs. But the overall effect has [not] been a real net negative. Companies have adapted and many affected workers have found new jobs. The vacancy rate and unemployment rates have not substantially dipped as a result thereof.
SECTOR: Office
CITY: Washington, D.C.
YEARS IN CRE: 30
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Tariffs keep whipsawing. Are you fast-tracking deals, hitting pause or rewriting budgets to stay ahead of the chaos?
What we are seeing today is quite frustrating. It really is challenging to develop in this environment, and while the government has made more positive noises, there remains a perception issue. We are trying to grow more efficiently, and I don’t believe the industry should have unfettered access or developers be allowed to build anywhere, but in the current circumstances, there needs to be more flexibility.
We’re six months into 2025. Has your playbook changed, and if so, what’s the new game plan?
In our sector it’s easier to build new, but we have an enormous amount of existing digital assets, so while working on those is challenging, the industry needs to look at how we modernise those assets.
What’s one assumption you had in January that hasn’t held up?
As an industry we have been really bad about perception of the sector, and despite our hopes going into 2025 and noises being made by the government, we need to see more public-private partnerships or third parties that can make money out of development initiatives around energy. In 2025 we are still caught in this cycle of report, garner public views, then more reports.
SECTOR: Data Centres
CITY: Dublin
YEARS IN CRE: 27
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Tariffs keep whipsawing. Are you fast-tracking deals, hitting pause or rewriting budgets to stay ahead of the chaos?
We’re maintaining our momentum and not hitting pause. While some costs may rise, we remain focused on delivering value and believe that Miami remains a resilient market for both domestic and international buyers.
We’re six months into 2025. Has your playbook changed, and if so, what’s the new game plan?
Our strategy is consistent with last year, emphasizing Miami’s appeal as a safe haven for investment and a lifestyle destination.
What’s one assumption you had in January that hasn’t held up?
We expected more uncertainty to dampen buyer enthusiasm, but demand, especially from Latin America, has remained robust, and Miami continues to outperform other luxury markets.
SECTOR: Luxury Condominiums
CITY: South Florida
YEARS IN CRE: 25
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Tariffs keep whipsawing. Are you fast-tracking deals, hitting pause or rewriting budgets to stay ahead of the chaos?
Our spec suites are small in the scheme of things, and pricing is maybe 5% higher than expected, so any perceived and actual tariff impacts on us are pretty manageable for our scale of construction. We are carefully watching the impacts for major capital items as the laws of supply and demand are still more powerful than tariffs when competing against data center markets for HVAC and electrical equipment right now.
We’re six months into 2025. Has your playbook changed, and if so, what’s the new game plan?
We are seeing the larger investors starting to buy office buildings again, which has given us renewed urgency to buy the right office buildings in the right locations that will remain compelling places to work for the foreseeable future.
What’s one assumption you had in January that hasn’t held up?
At the beginning of the year, we were very optimistic that the institutional office investors were still on the sidelines for 2025, leaving the field to players like us. This is an encouraging sign that the office capital markets are in early stages of recovery, which is happening faster than we anticipated.
SECTOR: Office
CITY: Washington, D.C.
YEARS IN CRE: 25
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Tariffs keep whipsawing. Are you fast-tracking deals, hitting pause or rewriting budgets to stay ahead of the chaos?
It isn’t impacting how I approach representing tenants, especially because it is very hard to time when/if and which prices will be affected. Personally, I think general contractors and subs have increased their prices just on the potential of tariffs and are taking advantage of the political situation. We saw prices spike when there were all the supply chain issues during and immediately following Covid, but as delays eased, we did not see much, if any, return to pre-Covid pricing.
We’re six months into 2025. Has your playbook changed, and if so, what’s the new game plan?
The only thing that has changed at all over the past six to 12 months is when I am representing a tenant looking at trophy space. I am more diligent about keeping those tenants focused and on schedule than in the past since often there is competition for that class of space. But other than that, the playbook any tenant rep should employ is to get deals over the finish line as soon as possible because there are so many domestic and world events that impact the type of clients prevalent in D.C. For example, DOGE has significantly affected the NGO tenant base, particularly those who are (were) heavily reliant on USAID funding.
What’s one assumption you had in January that hasn’t held up?
I am not one to make January predictions as to how the year might unfold, however, this was a unique year with the change in administration, and I was certain DOGE would have a devastating negative impact on the market. Although there have been some significant agencies affected, the overall impact wasn’t as detrimental to the main core of the market as I thought it would be.
SECTOR: Office
CITY: Washington, D.C.
YEARS IN CRE: 35
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Tariffs keep whipsawing. Are you fast-tracking deals, hitting pause or rewriting budgets to stay ahead of the chaos?
We’re not fast-tracking or pausing deals — we anticipated the volatility and always add contingencies in our budgets to account for potential increase in costs, including tariff costs.
We’re six months into 2025. Has your playbook changed, and if so, what’s the new game plan?
Our playbook hasn’t changed much. The market has remained fairly consistent with the last couple of years after the hyperinflation of 2022. There are always annual increases in costs and there may be some tariff impacts on certain trades.
What’s one assumption you had in January that hasn’t held up?
We expected more capital to enter the market early this year — however, the tariff uncertainty created confusion, which slowed capital confidence and delayed funding activity. Currently, though, we are seeing lenders and capital providers feeling better of current costs and starting to look at capitalizing projects since there is a lot of capital on the sidelines.
SECTOR: Mixed-Use
CITY: Miami
YEARS IN CRE: 30
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We’re six months into 2025. Has your playbook changed, and if so, what’s the new game plan?
We are prioritizing assets where we can directly influence performance through targeted leasing, placemaking and redevelopment. Today’s environment reinforces the value of strong capital relationships, market knowledge and a long-term view.
What’s one assumption you had in January that hasn’t held up?
We anticipated more liquidity returning to the capital markets by midyear. We are remaining disciplined and deploying capital where we see long-term upside and underwriting deals with greater scrutiny. Patience and precision have proven more valuable than prediction.
SECTORS: Office, Mixed-use
CITIES: South Florida, Washington, D.C., Texas, Atlanta
YEARS IN CRE: 20
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Tariffs keep whipsawing. Are you fast-tracking deals, hitting pause or rewriting budgets to stay ahead of the chaos?
Given the uncertainty it is creating, we are, one, being conservative on capital plan and costs to plan for potential increases; two, continuing to be cautious on new investments even though we’re still seeing improving office fundamentals in many of our markets; and, three, pressing to sign any leases in process quickly in the event we have a repeat of what happened after April 2.
What’s one assumption you had in January that hasn’t held up?
Transaction volume increasing more than it has.
SECTORS: Capital Markets, Acquisitions
CITY: National
YEARS IN CRE: 24
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Tariffs keep whipsawing. Are you fast-tracking deals, hitting pause or rewriting budgets to stay ahead of the chaos?
The tariff conversation among retailers is still top of mind but seemingly easing up from the initial administration announcements. Deals are still proceeding, but with different underwriting in mind. While retailers are moving forward, they will remain very cautious of deals while being very open to pulling the plug at any time.
We’re six months into 2025. Has your playbook changed, and if so, what’s the new game plan?
The playbook always needs to be dynamic within the retail world given so many macroeconomic factors can come into play. The playbook hasn't changed too drastically from the beginning of 2025, but in today's world, things can change quickly.
What’s one assumption you had in January that hasn’t held up?
Coming into January, consumer demand was thought to slow but 2025 has been a strong year in retail; sales are still strong. Strong demand from numerous different retail use groups is always a good sign for the six months ahead, so we expect this trend to continue.
SECTOR: Brokerage
CITY: New York City
YEARS IN CRE: 10
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Tariffs keep whipsawing. Are you fast-tracking deals, hitting pause or rewriting budgets to stay ahead of the chaos?
We’ve proactively built 3% to 4% contingencies into project budgets to absorb potential cost volatility. While we’ve seen some early price adjustments in response to tariff speculation, our current projects haven’t experienced actual cost increases. To stay ahead, we’ve preordered key materials and selectively shifted suppliers to limit exposure and maintain momentum.
We’re six months into 2025. Has your playbook changed, and if so, what’s the new game plan?
Yes — we’ve realigned our approach. With interest rates staying higher for longer than anticipated, the bid-ask gap in the office sector remains wide. As a result, we’ve recalibrated expectations and shifted certain acquisition and disposition goals to the latter half of the year.
What’s one assumption you had in January that hasn’t held up?
We assumed a more aggressive pace of interest rate cuts, but that’s been slower than projected. Additionally, the level of regulatory and policy shifts from the new administration has exceeded expectations — both in scale and speed — creating more uncertainty in the capital markets.
SECTOR: Office
CITY: Dallas
YEARS IN CRE: 38
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Tariffs keep whipsawing. Are you fast-tracking deals, hitting pause or rewriting budgets to stay ahead of the chaos?
Assignments are taking a little longer as decision-making is complicated by uncertainties surrounding tariffs, high interest rates without a timeline for when or if they will come down, and the recent U.S. bombing of Iran’s nuclear program and what their response will be. Because I have no control over any of that, I focus on my clients' short- and long-term needs and how we can address them.
We’re six months into 2025. Has your playbook changed, and if so, what’s the new game plan?
I can’t sit around waiting for the chaos to subside. I am returning to the basics: staying in touch with my clients, understanding their direction and staying on top of market opportunities that allow them to best position themselves for when the turnaround happens. We look for gaps in the market for our clients to take advantage of, blend and extend, or negotiate better financial terms. In short, we are using our intellectual capital and staying positive!
What’s one assumption you had in January that hasn’t held up?
I thought the environment would settle down, but it has not. We have midterm elections approaching in November 2026, and Congress will strive to address challenges before then, including topics like tariffs. But the turnaround will not happen overnight. I expect the market may begin stabilizing by year-end, and by July 2026, activity will start to pick back up. It is a toss-up, but I plan to stick to my revised playbook to address what I can control.
SECTOR: Industrial
CITY: Dallas-Fort Worth
YEARS IN CRE: 30
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Tariffs keep whipsawing. Are you fast-tracking deals, hitting pause or rewriting budgets to stay ahead of the chaos?
We’re not pausing deals, but we’re building in longer time horizons precompletion. Most of our purchase agreements now run on a three-to-five-year, subject-to-planning and subject-to-Gateway 2 basis, giving us room to ride out uncertainty and overcome new legislative requirements — whether it’s tariff swings, a broader downturn or unexpected changes in legislation. It also gives pricing time to recover if the market softens.
We’re six months into 2025. Has your playbook changed, and if so, what’s the new game plan?
We’ve become far more selective. We’re turning down nine out of 10 opportunities at the first pass — often in locations we’d have jumped at five years ago. Today, it’s all about long-term resilience, solid fundamentals and low exit risk.
What’s one assumption you had in January that hasn’t held up?
We expected a more supportive interest rate environment by now, and that has not come to fruition. It’s made us shift away from leverage-led growth and focus more on equity-backed deals and operational efficiency.
SECTORS: Coliving, Student Housing
CITY: London
YEARS IN CRE: 20
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Tariffs keep whipsawing. Are you fast-tracking deals, hitting pause or rewriting budgets to stay ahead of the chaos?
In a market with so much uncertainty, our current book of business includes cautious and opportunistic buyers and tenants. Our clients are looking for favorable terms and are willing to take their time to secure the best rates. While many retailers have hit the pause button on their projects, we’re reviewing those abandoned projects and negotiating better rates for our active retailers. An uncertain economy just means you need to have patience, persistence and a sharper strategy!
We’re six months into 2025. Has your playbook changed, and if so, what’s the new game plan?
“Stay alive till ‘25” — that was the mantra that I heard among my peers throughout 2024. We expected 2025 to be a successful and prosperous year, but instead we started the year with some of the worst wildfires our area has ever experienced, and it’s been a roller coaster since! We’ve had to quickly modify our playbook.
What’s one assumption you had in January that hasn’t held up?
The one assumption we had in January was that the interest rate would drop. We built our game plan around this assumption and due to the many different circumstances, we’ve concluded that it’s just not happening this year! The sooner we accept it, the better off we will be! In fact, we anticipate the rate will increase in the fourth quarter of 2025 to combat inflation.
SECTOR: Retail
CITY: Los Angeles
YEARS IN CRE: 15
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Tariffs keep whipsawing. Are you fast-tracking deals, hitting pause or rewriting budgets to stay ahead of the chaos?
We are putting on hold a number of manufacturing projects that are tariff-sensitive. These projects are not only in the manufacturing sector but also in the supply chain and logistics field, which continues to be a growth sector due to the continuing expansion of e-commerce. Adding to the lack of clarity are retaliatory tariffs from trading partners, which have to be accounted for, not to mention the fact that the political landscape can change on a dime.
We’re six months into 2025. Has your playbook changed, and if so, what’s the new game plan?
We are very optimistic for the second half of this year and going into 2026 due to our expectations of a lowering of interest rates by the Fed, a further moderation of inflationary cost pressures and a more settled tariff and trade policy coming out of Washington. Some of our projects that have been put on the shelf during the past 18 months are beginning to be implemented. Some of the leading states benefiting from the economic pickup include the Carolinas, Florida, Texas, Nevada and Pennsylvania. The industry dominating our workload is the data center field driven by the booming AI sector.
SECTOR: Site Selection
CITY: Boca Raton, Florida
YEARS IN CRE: 22
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Tariffs keep whipsawing. Are you fast-tracking deals, hitting pause or rewriting budgets to stay ahead of the chaos?
It’s a combination of all three, depending on the tenant profile and asset class. For value-add properties or developments where supply chains are highly exposed to international materials or furniture, fixtures and equipment, we’ve had to revise budgets and factor in higher contingency buffers. In contrast, we’ve fast-tracked deals in stable submarkets to lock in favorable lease terms and construction pricing before volatility worsens. Flexibility is key — we’re scenario planning more aggressively and collaborating closely with tenants to mitigate shared risks.
We’re six months into 2025. Has your playbook changed, and if so, what’s the new game plan?
At the start of the year, we expected a modest recovery in consumer spending and more predictable interest rate signals. Neither has fully materialized. Our updated game plan is centered on hyperlocal retail resilience — leaning into neighborhood centers with essential service anchors, diversifying tenant mix with experiential retail and deploying more capital toward tenant improvement packages to keep quality tenants in place. Leasing velocity has picked up in pockets, but we’re more selective about underwriting assumptions and ROI timelines.
What’s one assumption you had in January that hasn’t held up?
We assumed that softening inflation would translate into lower construction costs by midyear. That hasn’t happened — in fact, we’re still seeing persistent cost pressures, especially in labor and materials. It’s forced us to revisit our development pipeline, phase projects differently and get creative with design efficiencies. We're also seeing tenants take longer to commit, so deal timelines are stretching, which impacts both capital planning and leasing forecasts.
SECTORS: Retail, Development
CITY: Los Angeles
YEARS IN CRE: 20
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Tariffs keep whipsawing. Are you fast-tracking deals, hitting pause or rewriting budgets to stay ahead of the chaos?
Addressing the unfair way in which global competitors manipulate trade with the U.S. is a laudable goal. Still, I don't believe that the tariff whipsaw that we have seen was a good thing for the economy. Uncertainty never is. It seems to be quieting down. While some pricing has seen upward inflation, it isn't as much as you might expect. The net result for us is no change in our business approach.
We’re six months into 2025. Has your playbook changed, and if so, what’s the new game plan?
Aside from what I will call “headline fatigue” that is keeping our planning nimble and stressful, the year is playing out as we expected. For all of the noise around current events, performance in the hospitality space is where we thought it would be.
What’s one assumption you had in January that hasn’t held up?
For all of the crazy instability in the economy, it is playing out as predicted. Perhaps that means we predicted crazy and it came through.
SECTOR: Hotel
CITY: Chicago
YEARS IN CRE: 30
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Tariffs keep whipsawing. Are you fast-tracking deals, hitting pause or rewriting budgets to stay ahead of the chaos?
With equity markets soft and interest rates remaining high, fewer companies are chasing deals and [many are] becoming more bearish on terms and pricing. We're moving in the opposite direction, buying good real estate at a higher rate.
We’re six months into 2025. Has your playbook changed, and if so, what’s the new game plan?
The dealmaking playbook has shifted significantly. Construction prices are mostly stabilizing, and labor and subsidy profits are tightening more than material escalations due to low market activity.
What’s one assumption you had in January that hasn’t held up?
Tax credit equity is far softer than projected, but with a large pipeline in development, we can’t afford to push deals to future calendar years or risk a deal jam.
SECTOR: Affordable Housing
CITY: South Florida
YEARS IN CRE: 15
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Tariffs keep whipsawing. Are you fast-tracking deals, hitting pause or rewriting budgets to stay ahead of the chaos?
I’m taking a proactive yet balanced approach. The volatility in tariffs has definitely added pressure to construction costs and supply chains, which trickles down to residential pricing and buyer sentiment. We're not hitting pause — but we are fast-tracking deals where possible, especially for buyers who are rate-sensitive or on the fence. At the same time, we’re revisiting budgets and forecasts more frequently, building in flexibility to adapt quickly. It’s about staying nimble without compromising service or long-term strategy.
What’s one assumption you had in January that hasn’t held up?
I assumed that interest rates would stabilize by midyear, giving buyers more confidence and sellers more incentive to list. That hasn’t played out. Rates have remained sticky and uncertainty is still a major factor. As a result, we’ve had to get creative with financing solutions, partner more closely with lenders and coach our agents on how to manage client expectations in a high-rate environment.
SECTOR: Multifamily
CITY: Chicago
YEARS IN CRE: 20
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Tariffs keep whipsawing. Are you fast-tracking deals, hitting pause or rewriting budgets to stay ahead of the chaos?
Tariffs bring volatility, but with volatility comes opportunity. For some, they’re a setback — for others, like us, they create strategic openings. In Q2, we acquired industrial assets and are preparing to announce a new industrial park development. We’re not hitting pause — we’re leaning in, adapting quickly and looking for asymmetric advantages created by dislocation.
We’re six months into 2025. Has your playbook changed, and if so, what’s the new game plan?
Yes — significantly. As a private, family-owned firm, we pivot faster than institutional players. With office financing showing signs of life again, we’ve shifted some focus toward other value-add strategies. Retail remains resilient but ripe with distress — we’re actively targeting those cracks for new growth. Flexibility and selectivity are key.
What’s one assumption you had in January that hasn’t held up?
The biggest assumption that never holds up is that anything is predictable. If we knew the future, we wouldn’t be in this business. What’s helped us survive and thrive is buying right, maintaining a long-term horizon and staying true to fundamentals — that’s our constant in a sea of change.
SECTORS: Multifamily, Hospitality, Office, Retail, Industrial
CITY: National
YEARS IN CRE: Decades, second-generation operator
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Tariffs keep whipsawing. Are you fast-tracking deals, hitting pause or rewriting budgets to stay ahead of the chaos?
The tariff issue is creating more noise than pain at the moment. It appears prices have been boosted significantly by some vendors on inventory they have stockpiled in anticipation of tariffs, but given that labor remains our more dominant expense, these are mostly a nuisance. We don't see tariffs impacting property values or trading at the moment.
We’re six months into 2025. Has your playbook changed, and if so, what’s the new game plan?
Our playbook hasn't changed. It's just evolving slower than hoped. Uncertainty has also meant that capital piling up on the sidelines is less anxious to jump in, so we're having to spend more time educating investors that the sins of others in the past don't mean great deals can't be had today.
What’s one assumption you had in January that hasn’t held up?
We thought after the can got kicked to the end of the road, lenders, their bondholders and prospective sellers would surrender, take their lumps and part with properties at realistic prices. Instead, they're figuring out how to extend the road. Unfortunately, it's riddled with potholes and lined with decaying assets.
SECTOR: Multifamily
CITY: Houston
YEARS IN CRE: 38
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Tariffs keep whipsawing. Are you fast-tracking deals, hitting pause or rewriting budgets to stay ahead of the chaos?
The saber-rattling with the tariff exchanges has started to lessen and the market is beginning to take the position that the level of tariffs will not necessarily be as dramatic as during the onset. However, this still has caused enough pain and uncertainty for developers to push the pause button.
We’re six months into 2025. Has your playbook changed, and if so, what’s the new game plan?
The playbook has not changed but the level of consumption of Tums has increased. The first six months of the year have been a wait-and-see. Wait for interest rates to go down (or will they?) and what inflation will do. We are feeling better about the second half of the year, but headwinds still exist. This is where patience pays off and investors stick with the basics.
SECTOR: C-PACE Financing
CITY: Dallas-Fort Worth
YEARS IN CRE: 35
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How have you evolved your survive till ’25 strategy this year?
Definitely trying to progress deals and keep the parties motivated, as the tariffs have caused a pause for some tenants. Retailers are concerned about additional costs — both to bring their product/goods to the U.S., as well as to buy materials and construct their space. We have had two leases signed where tenants will not occupy and are discussing exit strategies. And we have other European/UK-based tenants that pulled back and have not executed on expansion plans.
We’re six months into 2025. Has your playbook changed, and if so, what’s the new game plan?
We have been extremely busy and are just marching ahead trying to get deals closed. Fashion brands, wellness tenants and restaurants are all expanding and competing for good space. Our priority is to get deals closed, as everything seems to be more complicated and move slower in today’s environment.
What’s one assumption you had in January that hasn’t held up?
That tariffs and the political environment would have an impact on retail sales, hotels, theater and shopping. But the city has, in fact been very vibrant, with tourism and spending in general increasing this year.
SECTOR: Retail
CITY: New York City
YEARS IN CRE: 46
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Tariffs keep whipsawing. Are you fast-tracking deals, hitting pause or rewriting budgets to stay ahead of the chaos?
We are mostly hitting pause on our projects. Uncertainty is the enemy of the real estate developer, and these tariffs only bring uncertainty.
We’re six months into 2025. Has your playbook changed, and if so, what’s the new game plan?
Going into 2025, I assumed lower interest rates would lead to more projects penciling out and less financing expenses. But that never happened due to the Federal Reserve's reaction to higher inflation. The new game plan is a wait-and-see strategy.
What’s one assumption you had in January that hasn’t held up?
As a real estate developer, I thought Trump would open the door to more good development. But he has been anything but helpful to RE development with his uncertain tariffs, increased inflation and ICE attacks on our workforce.
SECTOR: Affordable Housing
CITY: Philadelphia
YEARS IN CRE: 36
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Tariffs keep whipsawing. Are you fast-tracking deals, hitting pause or rewriting budgets to stay ahead of the chaos?
Our focus has become about leveraging our existing sites and the opportunities to do more with what we have and to open up new revenue channels, which also improve the customer experience and provide additional services to our tenants.
We’re six months into 2025. Has your playbook changed, and if so, what’s the new game plan?
We have focused more on the characteristics of our brand and making sure that clients understand it and value what we stand for. For us, the end result of that is that we have been able to turn toward franchising our name rather than development in new global markets, being able to offer our expertise with local partners who are strong in their regions.
SECTOR: Retail
CITY: Paris
YEARS IN CRE: 17
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