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January 6, 2021

Slow Rollout Of Vaccines Dashes Hopes For A Quick Recovery, But CRE May Be Past The Worst

[Digital Summit] How Will Business Travel Look Beyond The Vaccine? Learn More During Chicago 2021 Economic & Political Forecast Jan. 14

Any hope for a quick recovery from the pandemic has been dashed by the slow rollout of the COVID-19 vaccines, experts now say.

A resurgence of the coronavirus this winter led officials in Illinois and multiple other states to reimpose last spring’s restrictions on much commercial activity and on gatherings of more than 10 people. Many businesses and commercial properties can’t freely operate until those restrictions are fully lifted, HVS Managing Director Stacey Nadolny said. That won’t happen until widely available vaccines largely eliminate new cases over a sustained period.

“It looks like that won’t be until at least the end of 2021,” Nadolny said.

But mass vaccinations will only mark the beginning of a recovery in the hospitality sector and the commercial real estate industry as a whole. Getting back to the relatively healthy conditions that prevailed at the start of 2020 will happen in stages, and landlords and tenants will have to spend the coming year remaking their spaces in ways that address lingering fears of disease.

“The first three quarters of this year, economically at least, will be much worse than people expect it to be,” CRG Senior Vice President and partner Geoffrey Kasselman said.

Slow Rollout Of Vaccines Dashes Hopes For A Quick Recovery, But CRE May Be Past The Worst

CRG, the real estate development arm of Chicago-based Clayco, works in several sectors, including multifamily and industrial. Kasselman said that even if a probable pair of victories by the Democratic candidates for Georgia’s U.S. Senate seats boosts the chances for further economic stimulus, it would…

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