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Goodbye, fear. NAI Global’s market outlook at the New York Athletic Club was a bit more optimistic this year, although market fundamentals still have a ways to go—rental rates are still going down and vacancy rates are still trending upwards.
NAI Global's Henry Goodfriend, Jeffrey Finn, Andy Simon, and Peter Linneman at the New York Athletic Club
NAI Global EVP of operations Henry Goodfriend (standing), CEO Jeffrey Finn, NYC executive managing director Andy Simon, and chief economist Peter Linneman. Jeff says the US is no longer the most sought-after, but NY, LA, and DC are still strong, despite competing with Asian cities for investment. Next year, he predicts more for long and mid-term leasing and investment. Andy notes that NYC has experienced its first Manhattan rental rate increase in three years, and landlords are beginning to decrease concessions. As the market turns, it’s hard not to fathom a space shortage in the future, he adds. Downtown has potential with large blocks coming to market, and competition will be fierce.

NAI Global chief economist Peter Linneman at the New York Athletic Club
When panic occurs, disaster follows, says Peter, pointing to the “greatest regulatory fallout since Pearl Harbor.” We haven’t panicked this much since the Great Depression, and as a result, have lost 10M jobs. Figuring 1.8M new jobs per year, it will take us 5.5 years to get back to the '08 dynamics. Even doubling that it'd take until '13. You can’t keep beating people until morale improves, he says, but job growth will pick up, with housing, auto, medical, healthcare, and pharmaceutical leading the way. When you start replacing workers lost to the panic, people will start buying—and 3.5M new jobs per year isn’t unreasonable.
NAI Global New York City's Henry Widmaier, Philip Silverstein, Trent Dickey, Vladimir Spector, Carla Lewin, and Jesse Teitel at the New York Athletic Club
NAI Global New York City’s Henry Widmaier, Philip Silverstein,Trent Dickey, Vladimir Spector, Carla Lewin, and Jesse Teitel. The office has been on a recent hiring spree, including the additions of associates Trent and Carla. New managing directors Henry and Vladimir just came over from Helmsley Spear with colleague Mel Zimmerman. Jesse was promoted to director and Philip to managing director. Congrats!