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The Best Bet


Yesterday we posed this conundrum: Peter is walking home with $300 for his mom. A man stops him and gives him a chance to double his money. The man says: "I'll give you $600 if you can roll one die and get a 4 or above, you can roll two dice and get a 5 or 6 on at least one of them, or you can roll three dice and get a 6 on at least one die. If you don't, I get your $300." What does Peter do to have the best chance of getting home with the money? Both the first and third options give him a 50% chance of winning, and the two-dice option has a 66% chance. But CEI’s Jim Evans shared the best choice this way: “As the computer said in the movie WarGames, 'The only winning move is not to play the game.'” Jim won a free ticket to Bisnow’s Capital Markets Summit. He’ll be joined by Republic Central Realty’s Ed Smith, who expressed a popular sentiment: “Peter should decline all offers and run.”

Related Topics: Jim Evans